Nuts

Almonds: Australia forced to lower production forecast

May 4, 2023 at 9:07 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

CANBERRA. Australia ended the 2022/2023 almond season with record exports. At the same time, however, the production outlook was reduced by 25%; Instead of a crop increase, there will be a decline.

Estimates are revised by 25%

In its pre-seasonal crop estimate for 2023/2024, the Almond Board of Australia (ABA) had forecast a production increase to 156,200 mt, which would have been an increase of 8.6% compared to 2022/2023. At the end of April, however, the production forecast was drastically revised. It was reduced by a whopping 25%, which corresponds to about 117,150 mt and is the lowest value in recent years. In 2022/2023 the result was 143,805 mt and the year before still 124,439 mt. The expected increase in production thus turned into a decline of 18.5% compared to the previous year.

The reasons for this development are manifold and range from unfavourable weather conditions during the pollination phase, to an insufficient number of bee colonies, to poor water quality due to flooding. "We are in for another tough year. We have had storms, beehive shortages, floods, high input costs and low prices, so this is just another challenge for the industry," said ABA chairman Tim Jackson. According to Jackson, the other two global almond players - the US and Spain - are also facing production losses. The US Department of Agriculture's Subjective Crop Estimate is due to be released on 12 May and holds a much lower forecast than previously thought.

Exports at new record high

The Australian export season came to an end at the end of February, setting a new record for the fifth year in a row. Between March 2022 and February 2023, 105,490 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were exported from Australia. Domestic shipments totalled 24,162 mt during this period, down nearly 9% from the previous year and still the fourth highest result in the past decade.

Shipments to many countries increased last year, including the main customers China (+45% to 50,984 mt), Spain (+64% to 8,693 mt) and Vietnam (+29% to 8,410 mt). In addition, exports to Turkey (+282% to 6,052 mt) and the USA (+214% to 2,914 mt) increased significantly, making the declining shipments to India (-46% to 8,993 mt) of little consequence. In total, around 129,651 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were exported from Australia in the 2022/2023 season, an increase of 15% compared to the previous year.

Almond* exports and domestic demand, Australia, in mt

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

China

35,270

50,984

44.6%

Australia

26,463

24,162

-8.7%

India

16,711

8,993

-46.2%

Spain

5,296

8,693

64.1%

Vietnam

6,529

8,410

28.8%

Turkey

1,584

6,052

282.1%

Germany

3,483

3,527

1.3%

UAE

2,741

3,483

27.1%

USA

928

2,914

214.0%

Thailand

1,908

2,073

8.6%

Others

12,134

10,360

-14.6%

Total

113,047

129,651

14.7%

Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Feb

*shelled and unshelled

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
May 27, 2024
NEW DELHI/ATLANTA. As crop declines are anticipated in Brazil US exporters are reckoning with improved demand for their peanuts. Hot weather is causing problems in India.
Nuts
May 27, 2024
MANILA. In planting 100 million coconut trees the Philippine government aims to revitalise the industry. High freight rates present quite a challenge.
Nuts
May 27, 2024
CANBERRA/REUS. China and Hong Kong purchased a record volume exceeding 90,000 mt of in-shell macadamias in 2023. Strange sales patterns have emerged in South Africa, Australia and Kenya. Drought is an issue in Mexico and Guatemala. Global production estimates are upbeat for 2024.
Nuts
May 24, 2024
MADRID. Exports have picked up for almonds in Spain. Crop estimates for 2024/2025 have emerged. Prices are a troublesome matter.