Almonds: confusing estimates in Spain
June 30, 2026 at 12:05 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Curious rise in exports to US
Spain’s almond exports dipped considerably in the first nine months of the season. While exports clearly exceeded 100,000 mt in the same period of 2024/2025, total exports, excluding manufactured almonds such as meal, were still hovering below this volume in April. Sweet almond kernels account for the lion’s share.
Shipments to Germany have declined by 32%, yet the country still tops the chart as similar dents are showing in the top five with exports to Italy 33% down and to France 28% down. The USA are the noted exception as exports to here have surged more than sixfold. Only three countries in the top ten are not EU member states, namely the US, Turkey and Egypt.
|
Almond exports, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff |
|
Germany |
29,641 |
20,272 |
-31.6% |
|
Italy |
28,218 |
18,855 |
-32.9% |
|
France |
24,629 |
17,707 |
-28.1% |
|
Netherlands |
6,847 |
4,692 |
-31.5% |
|
Portugal |
4,282 |
3,379 |
-21.1% |
|
USA |
442 |
2,650 |
499.5% |
|
Greece |
2,717 |
2,571 |
-5.4% |
|
Poland |
3,374 |
2,338 |
-30.7% |
|
Turkey |
3,449 |
2,271 |
-34.2% |
|
Egypt |
3,614 |
2,260 |
-37.5% |
|
Others |
18,882 |
12,116 |
-35.8% |
|
Total |
126,095 |
89,293 |
-29.2% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain HS Code 08021290 Sweet almonds, fresh or dried, without shell |
|||
|
Exports according to type, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Almonds |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Sweet, without shell |
126,095 |
89,293 |
-29.2% |
|
Sweet, with shell |
3,456 |
3,623 |
4.8% |
|
Bitter, without shell |
3,076 |
2,740 |
-10.9% |
|
Bitter, with shell |
645 |
463 |
-28.2% |
|
Total |
133,272 |
96,119 |
-29.9% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain HS Code 08021290, 08021210, 08021190, 08021110 |
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Differing crop projections in Spain
Crop estimates vary in Spain. While SAB-Almendrave projected a record in-shell production of 146,000 mt at this year’s International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in Macao in mid-May, industry talks floated a much more optimistic 180,000 mt. Expansions in the area under irrigation and in the general production area are the main drivers.
By contrast, the agricultural organisations ASAJA, COAG and Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de España and AEOFRUSE issued a more cautious crop estimate of 135,250 mt, which still presents a 7% rise on last year’s 126,897 mt, towards the end of May. Their report highlighted that although weather conditions were mainly favourable, frost and local hailstorms impacted production in Castilla-La Mancha and the Balearic Islands and frost severely impacted organic production in the key-growing area of Granada, along with Almería, Málaga and Jaén. As Agroinformacion reports a EUR 10 million (USD 11 million) aid budget will be available to farmers, who can verify that they have lost 30% of their crop in these four affected areas.
According to ASAJA Córdoba in Andalusia, Spain’s leading almond producing area, production will climb by 30% in the province to an estimated 11,000 mt, mainly due to abundant rainfall in autumn, winter and the start of spring, which as refilled water reserves. Yet, tree deaths caused by the surge of the Mediterranean flatheaded root borer are quite a problem along with fungal diseases, whose treatment have driven up production costs. Fertiliser costs have also risen due to the conflict in the Middle East. Acreage has, in fact, dropped by 2,500 ha in Córdoba in the last two years. As the Price Observatory issued by Asaja shows local prices are, however, quite firm.
|
Almonds, local market prices, Spain |
|
|
Location |
EUR/kg |
|
Largueta |
5.15-5.55 |
|
Marcona |
5.55-6.12 |
|
Guara |
5.16-5.25 |
|
ASAJA Price Observatory, 19-26/06/26 |
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