Nuts

Almonds: conservative guesstimate in Spain

May 25, 2022 at 8:52 AM, Der AUDITOR
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MADRID/SACRAMENTO. While almond production will range 4% lower in California at 2.80 billion pounds, things are also far from encouraging in Spain. According to the National Nut Board production will range 30% lower than last year. Judging by experience, however, the estimates presented by this organisation tend to be rather conservative.

Production to decline by 30%

Issue is that other local analysts such as AEOFRUSE, Spain's umbrella organisation for dried fruit and carob producers, and DESCALMENDRA, the national almond shellers' association, ususally provide more encouraging estimates. In 2021/2022, the National Nut Board, for instance, estimated production at 87,215 mt (192 million pounds) for shelled almonds, whereas other market sources issued estimates ranging at 109,200 mt (241 million pounds). This year, the board reckons that production will decline by nearly 30% due to sudden forsts in spring as well as drought and range at 61,684 mt (136 million pounds).

Andalusia is the leading production region in Spain and will acount for nearly half of production this year. Production will, nevertheless, decline by 11% here. Even sharper declines will be witnessed throughout the country, especially in Castile-La Mancha, where production will range 65% lower than last year. Extremadura is the noted exception since production is expected to climb by 70% here partly due to a 30% rise in bearing acreage. Yields differ considerably throughout Spain depending on how far irrigation is used. Areas with little or no irrigation have much lower yields than areas that employ irrigation.

Almond production, Spain

Region

2021/2022

2022/2023

Diff.

ha

mt

ha

mt

ha

mt

Andalusia

131,449

33,800

146,541

29,939

11.5%

-11.4%

Extremadura

6,458

4,051

8.549

6,866

32.4%

69.5%

Murcia

69,057

10,600

72,248

6,700

4.6%

-36.8%

Valencia

57,031

9,500

59,584

4,845

4.5%

-49.0%

Aragon

66,611

10,506

67,960

4,782

2.0%

-54.5%

Castile-La Mancha

102,633

12,020

116,509

4,132

13.5%

-65.6%

Catalonia

30,144

4,805

30,473

2,805

1.1%

-41.6%

Balearic

10,676

550

10,302

680

-3.5%

23.6%

La Rioja

5,191

534

5,292

135

1.9%

-74.7%

Others

4,268

849

4,684

800

9.7%

-5.8%

Total

483,518

87,215

522,142

61,684

8.0%

-29.3%

National Nut Board, Spain, May 2022

Exports down in March

Spain's almond exports declined by 8% in March as compared with last year. Monthly exports for almonds with and without shell ranged at 11,167 mt (24,619 pounds) in March as opposed to 12,098 mt (26,671 pounds) in the same month last year. France was the leading export destination in March since Spain exported 2,875 mt (6,338 pounds) to here, which is 11% up on last year. Exports to Germany, by contrast, declined by 21% and ranged at 1,936 mt (4,268 pounds). The country, nevertheless, remained the second most improtant export destination for Spain in March.

Spain's total exports range 11% higher than last year this season so far since they have climbed to 105,436 mt (232,446 pounds). The most important export destinations comprise France (+28% to 25,830 mt or 56,945 pounds), Germany (+8% to 21,997 mt or 48,495 pounds) and Italy (+6% to 17,795 or 39,231 pounds). The UK (-24% to 4,363 mt or 9,619 pounds), Belgium (+33% to 4,322 mt or 9,528 pounds) and Portugal are next in line (+30% to 3,746 mt or 8,258 pounds). The United States are the only non-EU member state ranking in Spain's top 10 export destinations. Shipments to the USA have, however, declined by 10.1% to 1,856 mt (4,0918 pounds).

Almond exports, Spain, in mt

Destination

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

France

20,246

25,830

27.6%

Germany

20,285

21,997

8.4%

Italy

16,749

17,795

6.2%

UK

5,705

4,363

-23.5%

Belgium

3,259

4,322

32.6%

Portugal

2,873

3,746

30.4%

Poland

2,948

3,466

17.6%

Netherlands

3,857

3,358

-12.9%

Greece

1,519

1,961

29.1%

USA

2,064

1,856

-10.1%

Others

15,344

16,742

9.1%

Total

94,848

105,436

11.2%

Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism, Spain, 01/08/-31/03

Fixed prices

Summer will prove decisive for prices. Although production is set to decline in Spain and the United States, it should be noted that production is still set to be the third largest on record in California. If exports remain high before the new crop arrives, this would not only mean that carry-ins will range lower but also that that buyers will be well covered in the first few months of the new season. Prices have remained firm in Europe for now.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.50

4.82

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.70

5.03

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA

5.55

5.94

FCA Spain

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

Attached Files

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price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

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