Desiccated coconuts: El Niño poses significant risks
May 19, 2026 at 4:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Possible effects of El Niño
Several international climate centres anticipate the development of an El Niño phenomenon from mid-2026 onwards. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a high probability of its occurrence between May and July 2026, with the possibility of it persisting into the winter of 2026/27 in the Northern Hemisphere. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) also expect a transition from neutral conditions to El Niño during the summer or autumn of 2026; this is stated by the experts at T.M. Duché in their latest report.
For the Philippines, El Niño could cause an increased risk of lower rainfall and heat stress. This may affect coconut yields and make it more difficult to dry copra. Supply remains tight in Indonesia, Vietnam, India and Sri Lanka as well. In Vietnam, rising coconut prices have already been reported as a result of dry weather conditions and limited availability. Market players are increasingly turning their attention to the supply situation in the second half of 2026 and in 2027.
Market developments for copra, desiccated coconuts and coconut oil
Copra prices are continuing their downward trend. Both the weekly indications from Quezon and the average mill purchase prices were below the levels of the previous week, the previous month and the previous year. Weaker demand for edible oils and higher production costs are cited as the causes. Higher oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz have led to additional cost pressures, causing some producers to scale back their operations, according to T.M. Duché.
According to the market experts, export prices for desiccated coconuts have remained stable for the past 13 weeks. In contrast, spot market prices in Manila fell slightly after two weeks of firming. Coconut oil remains the weakest segment in the tropical oils market. On the Philippine domestic market, prices for crude and refined coconut oil showed a weaker to mixed trend. Additionally, falling palm oil prices and profit-taking in the vegetable oils market affected the trend. The price premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil narrowed further, which, according to the United Coconut Associations of the Philippines (UCAP), points to subdued demand.
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