Almonds: contrasting developments
October 23, 2024 at 12:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Record streak continues
Australia's almond exports continue to progress at a record-breaking pace. In August 2024, a total of 19,485 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were shipped domestically and internationally, an increase of 38.3% compared to the same month last year. Of this, 17,118 mt (+49%) were exported and 2,367 (-9.1%) were sold on the domestic market. China remains by far the most important export market for Australia this season; in August, shipments there totalled 8,917 mt, around 77% more than in the same month last year. However, exports to India (+64.7% to 3,481 mt), Vietnam (+22.6% to 1,398 mt) and the United Arab Emirates (+445.5% to 731 mt) also increased during this period, while countries such as Spain (-29.4% to 274 mt), Turkey (-57% to 266 mt) and Germany (-74.2% to 151 mt) drastically reduced their imports.
Since the start of the 2024/2025 season on 1 March, a total of 88,090 mt of Australian shelled and unshelled almonds have been shipped domestically and overseas. While domestic deliveries declined by 1.2% year-on-year to 12,554 mt, exports increased by 20.9% to 75,536 mt. Shipments to China almost doubled year-on-year to 41,469 mt, while the United Arab Emirates (+84% to 2,164 mt) and Germany (+9.5% to 1,934 mt) also increased their imports. In contrast, exports to India (-2.6% to 11,310 mt), Turkey (-30.3% to 4,117 mt) and Vietnam (-25.9% to 3,692 mt) declined.
|
Almond shipments*, Australia, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
China |
21,521 |
41,469 |
92.7% |
|
Australia |
12,704 |
12,554 |
-1.2% |
|
India |
11,606 |
11,310 |
-2.6% |
|
Turkey |
5,908 |
4,117 |
-30.3% |
|
Vietnam |
4,984 |
3,692 |
-25.9% |
|
Spain |
7,446 |
2,711 |
-63.6% |
|
UAE |
1,176 |
2,164 |
84.0% |
|
Germany |
1,767 |
1,934 |
9.5% |
|
Thailand |
502 |
1,026 |
104.4% |
|
Netherlands |
976 |
917 |
-6.0% |
|
Others |
6,609 |
6,196 |
-6.2% |
|
Total |
75,199 |
88,090 |
17.1% |
|
Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Aug *shelled and unshelled |
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Uncertainty keeps US prices up
According to the latest position report from the Almond Board of California, 471,736 mt of almonds from the new crop have been registered so far, and production for this year is said to be around 50% complete. As the experts from Blue Diamond Almonds report, yields in the southern growing regions of California in particular are falling short of expectations, while the plantations in the centre and north are looking better. Whether almond production can exceed the official forecast of 1.27 million mt remains questionable. Some market players are even expecting lower results of 1.20-1.27 million mt. However, a final result will not be available to the market until January 2025. Due to the uncertain crop forecasts, Californian packers are holding back with offers, while buyers are reluctant to accept the current comparatively high prices. Exports fell by 13.6% to 119,684 mt in the first two months of the 2024/2025 season and domestic shipments were also down on the same period last year (-5% to 53,519 mt). However, despite the lower trading activity, prices are maintaining their high level. As many buyers worldwide need to cover their demand for the holiday season, prices are likely to remain at the higher level until December.
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