Almonds: US crop to rise by 10%
July 17, 2025 at 4:53 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
May estimates raised by 7%.
Market players had originally hoped that the publication of the official crop estimates would provide more clarity. Instead, the figures led to more uncertainty. Last week, the US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service published its objective estimate for the 2025 US almond crop. The first subjective forecast was published in May 2025, when experts predicted a crop of 2.8 billion lbs or 1.27 million mt. The July figures are around 7% higher at 3 billion lbs or 1.361 million mt. This means that the 2025 crop has the potential to be the second-best result after the 2020/2021 season and would be almost 10% higher than last year's result.
However, according to experts at Blue Diamond Almonds, many market players believe that this estimate is too optimistic. This is justified by the fact that fewer new trees are being planted and profitability for growers is declining. As a result, yield-enhancing measures have been reduced and, in some cases, almond plantations have even been abandoned completely. This could result in a noticeable difference between the estimated and actual acreage.
According to estimates, the 2024/2025 season is expected to close with final stocks of just under 250,000 mt. If the crop meets expectations, a good 1.61 million mt of US almonds would be available on the market in 2025/2026. This season, availability was a good 1.434 million mt. To date, contracts for around 50,559 mt of shelled almonds from the new crop have been concluded.
Meanwhile, the experts at Chelmer Foods are optimistic. A timely start to the harvest should at least ease the transition period between the old and new crops and could even lead to slight price reductions. However, it remains to be seen whether these will be maintained.
|
US shelled almond production |
|||
|
Crop year |
mt |
bearing Acres |
mt/Acre |
|
2020 |
1,413,000 |
1,250,000 |
1.13 |
|
2021 |
1,331,000 |
1,310,000 |
1.02 |
|
2022 |
1,170,000 |
1,350,000 |
0.87 |
|
2023 |
1,114,000 |
1,380,000 |
0.81 |
|
2024 |
1,238,000 |
1,380,000 |
0.90 |
|
2025* |
1,361,000 |
1,390,000 |
0.98 |
|
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service *Objective estimate, July 2025 |
|||
US exports at last year's level
US almond exports failed to meet expectations in June. At 61,411 mt, around 6.1% fewer shelled and unshelled almonds were shipped overseas in June 2025 than in the same month last year. Domestic deliveries even fell by 17.2% to 23,291 mt. A total of 84,701 mt of almonds were shipped domestically and overseas last month, representing a decline of 9.4% compared to the same period last year. Indian importers brought forward shipments to stock up for Diwali demand, resulting in a 28.9% year-on-year increase in shipments to 15,757 mt. However, countries such as Italy (+64.6% to 4,030 mt) and Germany (+21.7% to 3,096 mt) also increased their imports. In contrast, exports to Spain (-7.7% to 5,542 mt) and the United Arab Emirates (-46.9% to 3,750 mt), among others, declined. Shipments to China have also fallen significantly this year, mainly due to trade disputes between the two nations. Instead, Chinese importers prefer shipments from Australia. Meanwhile, regional instability and geopolitical tensions have caused shipments to the Middle East to decline significantly.
While exports since the beginning of this season are only slightly below last year's volume at 829,209 mt, domestic demand is only 281,776 mt (-8% y-o-y). A total of 1.111 million mt of shelled and unshelled US almonds were shipped domestically and overseas between 1 September 2024 and 31 June 2025. India is by far the most important customer with 171,083 mt, followed by Spain, the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands.
|
US almond exports, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
India |
172,612 |
171,083 |
-0.9% |
|
Spain |
78,883 |
70,187 |
-11.0% |
|
UAE |
67,406 |
66,515 |
-1.3% |
|
Netherlands |
45,253 |
54,578 |
20.6% |
|
Turkey |
42,710 |
46,567 |
9.0% |
|
Italy |
35,929 |
41,893 |
16.6% |
|
Germany |
45,060 |
39,450 |
-12.4% |
|
Japan |
36,894 |
38,758 |
5.1% |
|
Morocco |
25,485 |
26,550 |
4.2% |
|
South Africa |
32,899 |
25,651 |
-22.0% |
|
Others |
250,382 |
247,977 |
-1.0% |
|
Total |
833,512 |
829,209 |
-0.5% |
|
California Almonds, 01/08-30/06; shelled and unshelled |
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