Nuts

Almonds: December boost

January 16, 2023 at 12:50 PM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

SACRAMENTO/MADRID. At 206 million pounds (93,440 mt) US almond shipments certainly ranged at the higher end of expectations in December. Crop receipts, however, fell short of anticipations and the outlook for this year’s crop is extremely difficult.

Exports rebound

Exports boosted the market in December 2022. They surged to 154 million pounds (69,853 mt), thereby exceeding the 124 million pounds (56,245 mt) shipped in December 2021 by 23%. Domestic shipments, by contrast, declined by 19% as the market is proving a serious challenge. Issue is that retailers retained historically high prices, while inflation is forcing consumers to tighten their belts.

Almond exports have, in fact, climbed to 745 million pounds (337,926 mt) between August and December. They have finally outpaced the 734 million pounds (332,937 mt) recorded in the same period in 2021/2022. Although domestic shipments are lagging behind last season’s record 64 million pounds (29,030 mt) at 52 million pounds (23,587 mt), total shipments have gained and now only range 1.9% lower than last year at 1.042 billion pounds (472,616 mt).

Although shipments to India have declined by 9%, demand has revived here in recent weeks. Demand, by contrast, remained low in China. Yet, this should change as the market is reopening as the country has abandoned its zero-Covid policy and prices are highly attractive. Shipments to Spain remained strong in December and have risen by 17% this season so far. The same is the case in the United Arab Emirates, where shipments have risen by 34% between August and December. Shipments to Germany have remained relatively firm.

US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

USA

325,182

296,825

-8.2%

India

171,103

155,067

-9.4%

China/Hong Kong

84,229

63,927

-24.2%

Spain

67,013

78,453

17.1%

UAE

46,415

62,123

33.8%

Germany

42,237

42,152

-0.2%

Netherlands

33,322

33,892

1.7%

Turkey

24,625

30,664

24.5%

Italy

30,991

29,438

-5.1%

Japan

33,579

27,305

-18.7%

Others

203,901

222,094

8.9%

Total

1,061,787

1,041,940

-1.9%

California almonds, 01/08-31/12
Shelled and inshell

Crop to fall short of expectations

Since crop receipts are 10.6% down on last year at 2.376 billion pounds (1.078 million mt) and harvesting finished earlier than usual, almond grower and processor RPAC expects receipts to decline sharply in January and final receipts range at 2.500-2.550 billion pounds (1.134-1.157 million mt), which would fall short of the objective estimate of 2.600 billion pounds (1.179 million mt). Although reports over snowpack and rain have been highly encouraging in recent weeks as it seems drought may be less of an issue this year, the outlook is far from certain. Weather conditions are, in fact, extreme with heavy rains and wind being reported. Many older trees have fallen and several orchards or partially or fully under water, which growers will have to remove in time to avoid the roots being damaged. At present it is only possible to speculate over production and demand. Producers, however, reckon that a 5% decline in supply, meaning a crop of around 2.525 billion pounds (1.145 million mt), would be desirable.

Price cuts in Spain and the US

Analysts anticipate promotions and price cuts in the retail market throughout the United States and Western Europe. Spot market prices have certainly declined sharply for most varieties in Spain – much to the consternation of producers who are demanding higher prices but are having a hard time competing with attractively priced US almonds. The prices for Largueta almonds have, however, proved remarkably stable in recent weeks.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.30

4.66

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.65

5.04

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural Spain

6.80

7.36

Largueta, 12/13 mm, natural, Spain

6.60

7.15

Almonds, blanched, diced, USA

4.30

4.66

FCA Spain

 

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

 

Attached Files

File icon
price chart almonds blanched diced California
File icon
price chart almonds natural Largueta 13-14 Spain

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
May 27, 2024
CANBERRA/REUS. China and Hong Kong purchased a record volume exceeding 90,000 mt of in-shell macadamias in 2023. Strange sales patterns have emerged in South Africa, Australia and Kenya. Drought is an issue in Mexico and Guatemala. Global production estimates are upbeat for 2024.
Nuts
May 24, 2024
MADRID. Exports have picked up for almonds in Spain. Crop estimates for 2024/2025 have emerged. Prices are a troublesome matter.
Nuts
May 23, 2024
MADRID/SACRAMENTO. Urgent calls for permission to treat organic crops with pesticides in areas affected by extreme drought in Spain contradict assertions that quality is more important than quantity for almonds. Pricing is also an issue in California, but for quite different reasons.
Nuts
May 22, 2024
NEW DELHI/BUENOS AIRES. India has started exporting the summer crop and international buyers can secure attractive offers here. In North and South America, the situation is partially very tense, which is mainly due to the shortage of goods.