Almonds: December boost
January 16, 2023 at 12:50 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Exports rebound
Exports boosted the market in December 2022. They surged to 154 million pounds (69,853 mt), thereby exceeding the 124 million pounds (56,245 mt) shipped in December 2021 by 23%. Domestic shipments, by contrast, declined by 19% as the market is proving a serious challenge. Issue is that retailers retained historically high prices, while inflation is forcing consumers to tighten their belts.
Almond exports have, in fact, climbed to 745 million pounds (337,926 mt) between August and December. They have finally outpaced the 734 million pounds (332,937 mt) recorded in the same period in 2021/2022. Although domestic shipments are lagging behind last season’s record 64 million pounds (29,030 mt) at 52 million pounds (23,587 mt), total shipments have gained and now only range 1.9% lower than last year at 1.042 billion pounds (472,616 mt).
Although shipments to India have declined by 9%, demand has revived here in recent weeks. Demand, by contrast, remained low in China. Yet, this should change as the market is reopening as the country has abandoned its zero-Covid policy and prices are highly attractive. Shipments to Spain remained strong in December and have risen by 17% this season so far. The same is the case in the United Arab Emirates, where shipments have risen by 34% between August and December. Shipments to Germany have remained relatively firm.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
325,182 |
296,825 |
-8.2% |
|
India |
171,103 |
155,067 |
-9.4% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
84,229 |
63,927 |
-24.2% |
|
Spain |
67,013 |
78,453 |
17.1% |
|
UAE |
46,415 |
62,123 |
33.8% |
|
Germany |
42,237 |
42,152 |
-0.2% |
|
Netherlands |
33,322 |
33,892 |
1.7% |
|
Turkey |
24,625 |
30,664 |
24.5% |
|
Italy |
30,991 |
29,438 |
-5.1% |
|
Japan |
33,579 |
27,305 |
-18.7% |
|
Others |
203,901 |
222,094 |
8.9% |
|
Total |
1,061,787 |
1,041,940 |
-1.9% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/12 |
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Crop to fall short of expectations
Since crop receipts are 10.6% down on last year at 2.376 billion pounds (1.078 million mt) and harvesting finished earlier than usual, almond grower and processor RPAC expects receipts to decline sharply in January and final receipts range at 2.500-2.550 billion pounds (1.134-1.157 million mt), which would fall short of the objective estimate of 2.600 billion pounds (1.179 million mt). Although reports over snowpack and rain have been highly encouraging in recent weeks as it seems drought may be less of an issue this year, the outlook is far from certain. Weather conditions are, in fact, extreme with heavy rains and wind being reported. Many older trees have fallen and several orchards or partially or fully under water, which growers will have to remove in time to avoid the roots being damaged. At present it is only possible to speculate over production and demand. Producers, however, reckon that a 5% decline in supply, meaning a crop of around 2.525 billion pounds (1.145 million mt), would be desirable.
Price cuts in Spain and the US
Analysts anticipate promotions and price cuts in the retail market throughout the United States and Western Europe. Spot market prices have certainly declined sharply for most varieties in Spain – much to the consternation of producers who are demanding higher prices but are having a hard time competing with attractively priced US almonds. The prices for Largueta almonds have, however, proved remarkably stable in recent weeks.
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Almonds |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.30 |
4.66 |
|
Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.65 |
5.04 |
|
Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural Spain |
6.80 |
7.36 |
|
Largueta, 12/13 mm, natural, Spain |
6.60 |
7.15 |
|
Almonds, blanched, diced, USA |
4.30 |
4.66 |
|
FCA Spain |
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View more
- price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts
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