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Almonds: differing perceptions

November 26, 2024 at 12:09 PM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Land IQ’s final acreage estimate has sparked mixed messages. Opinions also differ as to in how far the current prices for Californian almonds are here to stay.

Mixed messages

Perceptions of LandIQ’s final acreage estimate are mixed. While some stakeholders highlight that figures have improved since the initial April estimate, others are more pessimistic. Bearing acreage has indeed been revised upwards from the initial estimate of 1.373 million acres in April to 1.383 million acres in November. Reason is that additional acreage has been identified since the initial analysis was completed in March. Good news is also that the final total acreage of removed almond trees was less than the initially anticipated 70,728 acres.

Yet, non-bearing acreage covering the orchards planted in 2021 and later has also declined from 189,005 acres in 2023 to 142,306 acres in 2024. This means that total acreage stands 2% lower than last year at 1.525 million acres. As Olam hints acreage is trending down in California, which will impact future crops.

2023 and 2024 standing acreage final estimate

Acres

2024

2023

Diff.

Non-bearing

142,306

189,005

-24.1%

Bearing

1,383,332

1,374,331

0.6%

Total

1,525,638

1,563,336

-2.4%

Abandoned

30,515

40,920

34.1%

Total removed

66,794

82,958

-19.5%

LandIQ

Are prices here to stay?

According to Olam, the prospects are highly encouraging in the next few months. California is enjoying a winter respite with the trees moving into dormancy and heavy rains being very good for the soil. Confidence also prevails that the current high price levels will be retained by the market as many buyers remain uncovered and domestic consumption is high. Traders in Europe, by contrast, however, state that although demand is strong, buyers consider the current prices as too high. Quotations recently hit EUR 6.00/kg (USD 6.31/kg) for standard US almonds in Spain. Everyone is waiting until the new year. Things will also hinge in the crop size, which is officially estimated at 2.8 billion pounds, and the crucial bloom period which starts in mid-February.

 

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