Almonds: too good for buyers

Record November exports

At 216.95 million pounds exports hit a record in November and thereby also range 22% higher than in November 2023. Total exports stand at 671.80 million pounds which is nearly flat on last year’s 673.67 million pounds. For domestic shipments the story is a bit different. Although they had a strong October, November shipments declined by 10% to 54.44 million pounds as compared with November 2023. Domestic shipments and exports combined totalled 271.38 million pounds in November, which is 14% up on last year. Total domestic shipments are relatively flat on last year at 239.87 million pounds. This brings the grand total to 911.67 million pounds, which is also nearly on par with last year.

India to return

Shipments are, however, still sluggish in India, the single most important export market for US almonds. Exports to here have slumped by 23% year-on-year in the last four months. Yet, there is no sign of consumption cooling in the region. Buyers have also rather benefitted from advantageous trading with Australia in recent months. These volumes are, however, limited and reports are emerging that Indian buyers are returning to California with substantial volumes they need to cover.

Surprisingly robust demand in Middle East

In addition, the upsurge in shipments to the United Arab Emirates is indicative for a rather surprising development in the Middle East. Demand is robust, despite the current geopolitical tension. In fact, the Middle East has picked up the slack left by India and Europe this year as shipments to the region have risen by 38% to 147.99 million pounds since last year.

Europe loses gamble

Exports to Spain may still be lagging 16% behind last year, yet they have caught up in November. Western Europe in fact finally re-entered the market after buyers were initially put off by high prices along with low carry-ins in California and some were gambling on a supply glut. Shipments to Western Europe surged by 71% in November to 79.46 million pounds as compared with the same month last year. The robust demand in the Middle East provided no need for suppliers in California to issue cheaper offers and buyers who failed to secure contracts in time have now lost out. Shipments to the Netherlands have most notably risen by 38% this year so far.

Shift in Asia

Demand has shifted in Asia. While shipments to China/Hong Kong have slumped by 42%, they have surged by 63% to Vietnam. Explanation is that buyers in China are more actively sourcing in other producing countries such as Australia and in re-exporting countries such as Vietnam. As Trump’s policies will not be beneficial to improve trading with China these developments will remain in place.

High prices established

For suppliers in California the November Position report proves that buyers are prepared to accept the current high prices for almonds. Expectation is that prices will remain high until bloom, which starts between mid-February and mid-March. Not only is demand high as buyers in India require enormous volumes to keep up with consumption and buyers in Europe are refilling their pipelines but supplies may also become an issue. Crop receipts may range 25% higher than last year at 2.34 billion pounds, yet industry representatives do not think that the crop will reach the officially anticipated 2.8 billion pounds.

Issue is that hulling and shelling have progressed much faster than last year due to the much dryer conditions. Most hullers already completed operations in November and only some will remain busy until Christmas. This means that crop receipts will slow significantly. Some analysts even predict a crop size below 2.7 billion pounds. Carry-overs are currently forecast at 550 million pounds but may range lower than this. Good news for next year’s crop is that California has received quite a bit of rain and that reservoirs are well filled.

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