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Almonds: supply speculations

June 12, 2024 at 11:52 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. May was another strong month for US almonds. Demand is particularly strong in India. Question is how well supply and demand will remain balanced.

Strong demand

Demand is still strong this season and monthly shipments ranged 15% higher than last year in May at 226 million pounds as the recent Position Report issued by the Almond Board of California shows. At 65.6 million pounds domestic shipments gained their highest rise of 19% this season so far in May as compared with the 54.9 million pounds shipped in May 2023. Exports comprised 160.4 million pounds, which 14% up on the 140.7 million pounds recorded in May last year. Total exports have climbed to 1.7 billion pounds presenting a 6% rise on the 1.6 billion pounds registered in August 2022 through to May 2023. Domestic shipments have risen by a smaller 5% to 612.9 million pounds and total shipments are 5% up on last year at 2.3 billion pounds.

Shipments to India, the leading export destination, have surged by 21% this season. Projections state that they may very well surpass 400 million pounds by the end of the crop year as Diwali will be celebrated a bit earlier this year on 1 November. Contrary to this, shipments to Spain have declined by 3%, whereas exports to the United Arab Emirates have risen sharply by 19%. Shipments to the Netherlands and Turkey have also witnessed sharp increases but have declined by 24% to China and Hong Kong. Although China is a hotspot for consumption, demand is impacted by geopolitical tensions and the current situation will do little to turn the tables in favour of almonds here.

US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs

Destination

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

USA

598,985

612,942

2.3%

India

291,361

353,601

21.4%

Spain

165,635

160,674

-3.0%

UAE

112,022

133,035

18.7%

China/Hong Kong

132,020

99,702

-24.5%

Netherlands

73,787

93,871

27.2%

Germany

93,752

93,728

0.0%

Turkey

67,675

83,560

23.5%

Italy

73,180

73,870

0.9%

Japan

71,924

73,113

1.6%

Morocco

54,631

64,351

17.8%

Others

456,370

463,935

1.6%

Total

2,191,342

2,306,382

5.2%

California almonds, 01/08-31/05
Shelled and inshell

Market to retain support

Suppliers generally agree that the market will continue to gain support in the next few months as carry-over supplies range much lower, there is no sign of demand sliding and production may well fall short of the subjective estimate. Computed inventories have declined sharply by 24% to 884.8 million pounds million pounds as compared with last year and supplies of smaller kernels are rather limited. Shipments are highly probable to exceed 400 million pounds in the remaining two months of the current season, which would leave a carry-over stock of just over 400-450 million pounds.

Next month will prove decisive as the USDA will issue the objective estimate for the new crop on 10 July. While the industry questions in how far the new crop will live up to the USDA’s subjective estimate over 3 billion pounds as farmers have been struggling to maintain ideal growing conditions in recent years, demand is strong. Should the objective forecast project lower figures prices will certainly rise.

 

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price chart, almonds. Mamra, Iran
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
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