Almonds: supply speculations
June 12, 2024 at 11:52 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Strong demand
Demand is still strong this season and monthly shipments ranged 15% higher than last year in May at 226 million pounds as the recent Position Report issued by the Almond Board of California shows. At 65.6 million pounds domestic shipments gained their highest rise of 19% this season so far in May as compared with the 54.9 million pounds shipped in May 2023. Exports comprised 160.4 million pounds, which 14% up on the 140.7 million pounds recorded in May last year. Total exports have climbed to 1.7 billion pounds presenting a 6% rise on the 1.6 billion pounds registered in August 2022 through to May 2023. Domestic shipments have risen by a smaller 5% to 612.9 million pounds and total shipments are 5% up on last year at 2.3 billion pounds.
Shipments to India, the leading export destination, have surged by 21% this season. Projections state that they may very well surpass 400 million pounds by the end of the crop year as Diwali will be celebrated a bit earlier this year on 1 November. Contrary to this, shipments to Spain have declined by 3%, whereas exports to the United Arab Emirates have risen sharply by 19%. Shipments to the Netherlands and Turkey have also witnessed sharp increases but have declined by 24% to China and Hong Kong. Although China is a hotspot for consumption, demand is impacted by geopolitical tensions and the current situation will do little to turn the tables in favour of almonds here.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
598,985 |
612,942 |
2.3% |
|
India |
291,361 |
353,601 |
21.4% |
|
Spain |
165,635 |
160,674 |
-3.0% |
|
UAE |
112,022 |
133,035 |
18.7% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
132,020 |
99,702 |
-24.5% |
|
Netherlands |
73,787 |
93,871 |
27.2% |
|
Germany |
93,752 |
93,728 |
0.0% |
|
Turkey |
67,675 |
83,560 |
23.5% |
|
Italy |
73,180 |
73,870 |
0.9% |
|
Japan |
71,924 |
73,113 |
1.6% |
|
Morocco |
54,631 |
64,351 |
17.8% |
|
Others |
456,370 |
463,935 |
1.6% |
|
Total |
2,191,342 |
2,306,382 |
5.2% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/05 |
|||
Market to retain support
Suppliers generally agree that the market will continue to gain support in the next few months as carry-over supplies range much lower, there is no sign of demand sliding and production may well fall short of the subjective estimate. Computed inventories have declined sharply by 24% to 884.8 million pounds million pounds as compared with last year and supplies of smaller kernels are rather limited. Shipments are highly probable to exceed 400 million pounds in the remaining two months of the current season, which would leave a carry-over stock of just over 400-450 million pounds.
Next month will prove decisive as the USDA will issue the objective estimate for the new crop on 10 July. While the industry questions in how far the new crop will live up to the USDA’s subjective estimate over 3 billion pounds as farmers have been struggling to maintain ideal growing conditions in recent years, demand is strong. Should the objective forecast project lower figures prices will certainly rise.
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