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Almonds: upbeat forecast

May 13, 2024 at 10:57 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Production is set to bounce back to 3 billion pounds for almonds in California this year. The weather was great for pollination. Question is in how far this figure will hold in the objective estimate.

3-billion-pound crop

Judging by the subjective crop estimate issued by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on 10 May production will bounce back by 21% to 3 billion pounds in 2024. Yields will also range 21% higher, whereas bearing acres will remain flat at 1.38 million. Weather conditions were mainly good in the first half of the growing season. Although quite a few storms brought rain, wind and hail to some areas, temperatures were generally mild and excellent weather conditions helped pollination along between the end of February and mid-March encouraging NASS to anticipate the second largest production on record.

California almond acreage and production

Value

2023

2024

Diff.

Bearing acres

1,380,000

1,380,000

0.0%

Yield per acre

1,790

2,170

21.2%

Production (million pounds)

2,470

3,000

21.4%

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service 10/05/24

Acreage to range lower

This forecast is, however, only preliminary and based on a survey in which 500 randomly selected growers took part between 19 April and 5 May. NASS will issue the objective estimate, which will be based on counts conducted in 1,000 orchards, on 10 July. Although Rabobank also anticipates a 3-billion-pound crop this year, it should be noted that Land IQ issued a slightly smaller estimate over 1.373 million bearing acres in April. This estimate highlights that acreage has declined for the first time in roughly thirty years.

 

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