Almonds: USDA cannot shake off 2.8-billion-pound figure

Strong US exports in April

Monthly exports hit a record 187.81 million pounds in April. While this is 6% up on the 176.67 million pounds exported in April last year, domestic shipments dropped to an eight-year low of 53.30 million pounds, a stunning 18% lower than last year. Net monthly shipments were flat on last year at 241.1 million pounds. Total shipments for the season, however, range 1.4% lower than last year in August through to April. Due to the April boost exports are now flat on last year, but domestic shipments range 5% lower.

Demand in India is strong and monthly shipments ranged 40% higher in April 2025 than they did in April 2024. Main reason is simply that inventories are low and that supply chains need to be replenished. On an upside it has also been noted that no conflicts have arisen that would disrupt US-India trading. Guess is that this may have prompted some buyers fearing reciprocal tariffs to become active.

Although exports to Spain are still lagging 14% behind last year, exports to Western Europe were strong in April, which balanced the weak performance in March. As the EU will introduce a 25% retaliatory tariff on US almonds as of 1 December buyers may be prompted to step up purchases in the preceding months. Exports to the United Arab Emirates are 3% up on last year. Demand in the Middle East as a region is strong for US almonds with shipments to Turkey rising by 24%, to Saudi Arabia by 34% and to Jordan by 39%. Firm prices have, by contrast, put off buyers in Morocco and exports now range 6% lower than last year.

Tariffs and supplies to impact US trade

Forecasted carryout sits at 550 million pounds with industry leaders reckoning that this will give handlers little room to ship large volumes in the remaining three months of the season. Expectation is also that they will not be willing to engage in large contracts in the transition period. This will prove a challenge for buyers requiring immediate supplies.

Tariffs will also directly or indirectly impact trading. As the Trump administration reached a surprise agreement with China over the weekend, the US dollar has gained support. China and the US agreed to suspend the ridiculously high tariffs imposed in recent months for 90 days. Extra US import tariffs for Chinese products have thereby declined from 145% to 30% and China’s import tariffs for US products have declined to 10% from 125%. While the surprise deal has been greeted as a sign that both countries want to avoid a full-blown trade war, caution also prevails as a final deal still needs to be reached.

Mixed message in USDA NASS subjective estimate

In the subjective estimate for this year’s crop issued on 12 May the USDA cannot shake the 2.8-billion-pound figure hat prevailed as an official estimate for several months in the current season. At 2.73 billion pounds the 2024 crop did, however, not quite reach this initial estimate. Yet, the USDA is confident that the 2025 crop will as bearing acres and yields are expected to range higher than last year. After dipping to a low of 2.58 billion pounds in 2023, production will thereby continue to recover. Bearing acres have, however, plateaued. While they remained flat on 2023 at 1.38 million in 2024, acres are now set to only rise a bit by not even 1%. They projections do not come as a surprise but are rather taken as a conformation that a bumper crop is out of the question this year.

Reports from the orchards as conducted in the USDA NASS survey on 21 April to 7 May are, in addition, mixed. The crucial bloom period started in the first week of February and peaked in the middle of the month. Weather patterns differed throughout California during bloom as storms brought heavy rains, wind and hail. Cool temperatures and low bee flight hours slowed crop development in the San Joaquin Valley. Fortunately, the weather changed in March with warm conditions accelerating progress towards the end of the bloom period. A lighter flower set has, however, significantly reduced Nonpareil yields. In addition, the industry is still assessing the impact of the intense summer heat witnessed in 2024. Water should not be an issue this year.

INC highlights limited supplies

Figures presented at the round table for almonds at this year’s International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in Majorca indicate that global kernel production will rise by 2% to 1.675 million mt (3.693 million pounds) as compared with 2024/2025. Total supplies will, however, be relatively flat on the current season at 1.925 million mt (4.243 million pounds).

Unlike the USDA, the INC predicts that US production will remain flat in 2025/2026. Issue is that bearing acres have remained relatively firm between 2023 and 2025. The INC also highlights that they currently range nearly 8% lower than the peak reached in 2022.

In Australia, the Almond Board has recently issued a preliminary crop estimate that falls 10-20% short of industry expectations. Trouble is that excessive heat resulted in low kernel moisture and kernel weight. September frosts also reduced yields. Initial estimates predicted a 172,000 mt crop. The Australian Almond Board will issue a final estimate in September or October. In addition, the carry-over supplies from last year’s crop have fallen to the lowest volume of 3,968 mt in twenty years on the back of strong demand as the INC points out. This will limit the marketable inventory to 155,611 mt in 2025/2026, which is 10% down on last year’s 173,508 mt.

Production has climbed in the past three years in Spain. While output dipped to 75,051 mt in 2022, the crop size is now expected to reach 122,000 mt. Hectares have, however, flattened out since 2020. Although rainfed orchards still make out the lion’s share, the amount of irrigated orchards has steadily increased between 2014-2023. Apart from this, sharp production rises should materialise in China, Chile and Greece this year.

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