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Barley: Weekly spikes in exports will not change the prevalent market sentiment

November 2, 2017 at 1:03 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Foreign shipments to EU markets lead among the rest. Yet, the sluggish trade so far in the marketing season is not encouraging, at all.

BULGARIA. According to local authorities, by the 26th of October 2017, estimates of sowed acreages of barley stood at 81,570 mt. During harvest 2017-18, farmers harvested barley from 130,580 ha, which on a year-to-year basis is lower by 19.5%.

Barley: exports lag behind on a yearly basis

Last year, barley was traded within a market of tough regional competition. However, the current market sentiment seems not to have offered better chances to local market sellers, even worse if one considers numbers in relative terms. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 27th of October 2017, the country exported 239,049 mt of barley, as the majority – 92.80% went to EU markets. However, by the 28th of October 2016, shipped volumes abroad reached 326,000 mt, which on an annual basis is close to 27% in favor of last year. The variation in total availability (aggregate output, imports and carry-over) for both seasons is noticeable: this year’s number stands at 655,640 mt while that of the previous season reached 738,473 mt or 11.30% higher.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 27.10.2017)

Beg.availability, incl. carry over & imports

  655,640  mt

Domestic consumption

102,000 mt

Exports to the world

239,049 mt

   to EU markets

221,832 mt

   to rest of the world

17,217 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Domestic trade is characterized by a few metric tons per week. Exports started high in the beginning of the marketing season, but recently the market only registered intermittent spikes in shipped volumes abroad. Most probably, the export trend throughout the marketing season will persist; as later in the year, depending on the dynamics of the feed wheat trade on the domestic and foreign markets, local demand could noticeably increase.

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