Nuts

Brazil nuts: production declines send prices flying

August 2, 2021 at 10:34 AM , Der AUDITOR
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REUS. Prices for Brazil nuts have been on the rise for months. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) now estimates that global production is set to decline by more than 17% in 2021/2022. Prospects are anything but encouraging in Bolivia and in Brazil at present. In Peru the situation is, however, entirely different.

Sharp declines in production in Bolivia and Brazil

Raw material prices have tripled since the start of the year as international prices are up. This is mainly attributed to the sharp decline in production in Bolivia anticipated in 2021/2022. Although prospects were encouraging during harvesting in the Amazonas from December 2020 through to late March 2021 as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed and the crop could be processed without much ado, things are about to change in 2021/2022. In-shell production is expected to decline by 19% in Bolivia and by as much as 40% in Brazil in 2021/2022. These sharp declines are driven by adverse weather conditions and damages caused by pests. Ending stocks are even projected as low as 4,050 mt in 2021/2022 as opposed to 9,300 mt in 2020/2021. Low supplies will also have an impact in Peru next season as total supplies here are expected to drop by 300 mt to 16,500 mt. 

Amazonia (Brazil) nut production, in-shell basis, mt

Country

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Bolivia

66,600

54,000

-18.9%

Peru

15,000

15,000

0.0%

Brazil

7,500

4,500

-40.0%

Total

89,100

73,500

-17.5%

INC, July 2021

Export prices have risen by 30% since March

This season's low carry-overs are driven by exports, which have remained relatively high, despite the problems witnessed with container shortages this year. As the news spread that prodcution is set to decline in Bolivia export prices started to rise in March. Developments here closely correlate with the situation in the raw material market, where prices have tripled. While medium shelled Brazil nuts from Bolivia were still trading at EUR 6.10/kg FCA Spain in March, they have now nearly tripled to EUR 9.75/kg FCA Spain.

Brazil nuts, shelled

Size, origin

EUR/kg

Midget, Bolivia

9.35

Medium, Bolivia

9.75

FCA Spain

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