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Bulgarian barley: current stocks quite high

May 23, 2017 at 6:20 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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With the upcoming harvest approximately a month away, barley is going through its lactic ripeness stage of development. Sluggish local trade on a weekly basis.

Prices matter and regional trends have an effect on export mandates

Competition in the Black sea region has an effect on prices, which consequently influences sales. The majority of the crop was exported in the period between the beginning of the marketing season (starting in July) and the end of 2016. At that time, deals were closed at average purchasing prices of between 0.122 EUR/kg and 0.130 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. Currently, supply and demand meet at about 0.136 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.

Lack of exports and sluggish domestic trade will accumulate stocks

In recent months, exports have not been registered while the weak weekly trade on the local market will most probably accumulate higher than usual carry-over for the upcoming season. By the third week of May 2017, remaining stocks stood at 51,490 mt while at the start of the season, carry-over was 4,900 mt. And, the upcoming harvest will start in approximately а month.

The table below provides a view of barley harvest 2016-17, as well as, its domestic and foreign development trends.

Harvest 2016-17

(beginning of harvest till 19.05.2017)

Carry over

4,900mt

Domestic output

693,565mt

Domestic consumption

288,900mt

Exports to the world

373,796mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

How is barley consumption distributed on the local market?

Because of a lower export demand on a yearly basis, the majority of domestic consumption mainly has gone to feed use. By the 19th of May 2017, feed use represented 64.31% of domestic consumption. The second largest usage (23.57%) goes in the process of beer production.

Before the start of the upcoming harvest, remaining stocks will most probably go for internal consumption while average purchasing prices are expected to remain static.

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.136

CPT domestic port

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