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Corn: Adverse weather could shatter dreams

September 5, 2017 at 1:25 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Before harvest begins on a mass scale this month, the weather could turn out to be a double-edged sword. Auspicious rains favor some regions while hailstorms “harvested” through others.

SOFIA. Farmers from the fields within the North regions of the country collect the highest corn output every year. A case in point, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, during season 2016-17, the North produced 94.81% of the aggregate output of the country – 2,226,094 mt. The rest was produced from the general South regions.

Corn: weather will be the defining factor

Although the general weather conditions have been quite favorable for the North regions during Winter and later in the Spring -- with some minor exceptions earlier because of hailstorms -- before the beginning of harvest, weather might quite well change the prospects for an expected higher output, at least in some parts of the country. The most recent hailstorm, hitting fields in the Central North, has already taken its toll among local farmers. However, the damage is confined to fields within the specific region though, since in the Northeast, farmers have not experienced hailstorms and are looking forward to a much higher output. Currently, farmers are harvesting sunflower and in approximately a ten days’ time, they will start collecting corn on a mass scale. 

Higher carry-over from last season

Marketing season 2016-17 was characterized by a relatively slow export activities because of tough regional competition. Local prices have been kept high and as a result, the majority of the crop has been consumed on the local market. Last season’s carry-over reached 400,000 mt while this year’s is 489,628 mt.

Harvest 2016-17

(01.09.2016 - 01.09.2017)

Carry over

400,000 mt

Domestic output

2,226,094 mt

Domestic consumption

1,263,000 mt

Exports to the world

1,009,611 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

The higher beginning inventory of last season and the higher expected output -- by at least 20% than that of last year -- have already disillusioned farmers of what the market will accept as prices.

Corn, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

corn

0.148

EXW Bulgaria

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