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Corn: Is Bulgaria heading for disaster?

January 23, 2017 at 10:13 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SOFIA. With transportation almost coming to a complete standstill disaster has struck in Bulgaria. Most recent estimates on the price development for this season, however, also factor in other aspects.

Better weather forecasts in sight
Currently, corn is traded for 0.157 EUR/kg CPT Varna seaport. The last time the crop was registered to trade at such heights was in the middle of July 2016. Heavy snowfalls and winter blizzards have closed many of the roads throughout the country, thus impeding trade. Fortunately, the snowfall is, however, forecasted to fall in intensity while temperatures are expected to fluctuate on average at around -8°C until the end of January. When the roads are cleared and safe, the trade will resume at higher rates.

Current availabilities and expectations in the Black Sea region
Bulgaria exported 647,603 mt by mid-January. The majority, namely 541,838 mt, went to countries of the European Union. An estimated 1,5 m mt remain to be sold. Prices depend on local and export demand as well as on the competition in the region. According to the US Department of Agriculture production and exports of Ukrainian corn are expected to be higher in 2016-17 than last year. Corn has on average being trading for 170 USD/mt FOB in the Ukraine. The expected increase of supply in the region could exert a downward pressure on prices.

 

Corn, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

corn

0.157

CPT domestic port

 

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