Corn: EU supplies under threat

September 9, 2022 at 11:34 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

PARIS. EU corn imports have recently surged showing that the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast that the EU will step up imports to 19 million mt may very well ring true. Russia’s sharp criticism of the implementation of the grain export deal with Ukraine may, however, cut off the bloc from urgently needed supplies.

Threats impact market

Drought and excessive heat have reduced production in France, Italy and Germany and Poland. EU production estimates range at 60 million mt, which is roughly 15% down on the 71 million mt produced last year according to EU Commission data. EU imports have, therefore, risen sharply by 48% to 4.47 million mt this marketing year so far as opposed to the 3.03 million mt imported last year. While the USDA expects the EU to step up buying by 3 million mt to 19 million mt, the EU Commission reckons that 20 million mt will need to be imported.

Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has threatened to limit the deal for shipping grains and oilseed brokered with Ukraine to only a few countries, which would effectively impede the EU from obtaining Black Sea supplies as of November. Ukrainian corn exports enabled by the deal rose to 763,000 mt in August and are expected to climb further. The EU may, therefore, switch to the US or Brazil for supplies - GMO may, however, be an issue here. Brazil’s monthly exports surged by 71% to 7.55 million mt in August as opposed to the same month last year. China will also have to step up imports due to drought.

Prices up in Europe

Ethanol is trading lower and uncompetitive prices have rendered corn unattractive for the feed industry. Russia’s threat to limit the grain corridor has, however, driven up prices by EUR 2-7/mt in Europe in the last few days.

EU grain maize, yellow, 98% purity



Diff. EUR/mt

Bordeaux, France, FOB



South Holland, CIF



Brake, Germany, FOT



Upper Rhine, France & Germany, FOB



Trade sources, weekly comparison

View more
price chart, corn, yellow, 99.5% purity, Matif
price chart, corn, CBOT

Attached Files

File icon
price chart corn matif

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
May 25, 2023
LIMA/SUCRE. Harvest delays and yield declines in Peru are leaving their mark on the quinoa market. The EU imported around 15% less quinoa in 2022.
May 12, 2023
BRUSSELS. While traders were initially convinced that the Black Sea Grain deal would be extended beyond 18 May, their patience was put to a hard test as negotiations continued in Istanbul this week. Now Russian news agency TASS has reported that the deal will be extended by 60 days. Uncertainties prevail for wheat, Spain’s drought will boost demand for corn and China is giving soybean suppliers a hard time. Prospects for the new rapeseed crop are, however, highly encouraging in the EU.
May 5, 2023
BRUSSELS. Ukraine is a matter of conflict for the EU’s agritrade in grains and oilseeds and the possible suspension of the Black Sea Grain Deal has made things worse for now. Ukraine’s wheat exports have certainly slowed. Corn has also sparked a bit of contention as China speculates that prices will tumble along with soy in Brazil. The pressure is also on for rapeseed.
Apr 28, 2023
BRUSSELS. As the uncertainties over the extension of the Black Sea Grain deal prevail, the prices for wheat and rapeseed should have skyrocketed. Instead, the opposite is the case. Brazil’s bumper crop is also adding considerable pressure for soybeans and many EU member states will produce less corn.