Grains

Corn: EU supplies under threat

September 9, 2022 at 11:34 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

PARIS. EU corn imports have recently surged showing that the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast that the EU will step up imports to 19 million mt may very well ring true. Russia’s sharp criticism of the implementation of the grain export deal with Ukraine may, however, cut off the bloc from urgently needed supplies.

Threats impact market

Drought and excessive heat have reduced production in France, Italy and Germany and Poland. EU production estimates range at 60 million mt, which is roughly 15% down on the 71 million mt produced last year according to EU Commission data. EU imports have, therefore, risen sharply by 48% to 4.47 million mt this marketing year so far as opposed to the 3.03 million mt imported last year. While the USDA expects the EU to step up buying by 3 million mt to 19 million mt, the EU Commission reckons that 20 million mt will need to be imported.

Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has threatened to limit the deal for shipping grains and oilseed brokered with Ukraine to only a few countries, which would effectively impede the EU from obtaining Black Sea supplies as of November. Ukrainian corn exports enabled by the deal rose to 763,000 mt in August and are expected to climb further. The EU may, therefore, switch to the US or Brazil for supplies - GMO may, however, be an issue here. Brazil’s monthly exports surged by 71% to 7.55 million mt in August as opposed to the same month last year. China will also have to step up imports due to drought.

Prices up in Europe

Ethanol is trading lower and uncompetitive prices have rendered corn unattractive for the feed industry. Russia’s threat to limit the grain corridor has, however, driven up prices by EUR 2-7/mt in Europe in the last few days.

EU grain maize, yellow, 98% purity

Destination

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Bordeaux, France, FOB

338

3

South Holland, CIF

350

7

Brake, Germany, FOT

337

2

Upper Rhine, France & Germany, FOB

325

2

Trade sources, weekly comparison


View more
price chart, corn, yellow, 99.5% purity, Matif
price chart, corn, CBOT

Attached Files

File icon
price chart corn matif

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Grains
Apr 5, 2024
BRUSSELS. Ukrainian wheat will not be subjected to import restrictions in the EU and US traders are sceptical about recent estimates for corn. Uncertainty prevails over Brazil’s soybean crop and the EU will need to import more rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia.
Grains
Mar 22, 2024
BRUSSELS. Coceral has slashed the EU and UK production estimates for wheat and for rapeseed. Farmers will sow less corn this year in the US and Ukraine. China has tripled its imports of soybeans. Tariffs are a matter of debate for grains and oilseeds in Europe.
Grains
Mar 8, 2024
BRUSSELS. Panic has broken loose after China cancelled a large order for US wheat. Attractive prices have also prompted China to buy extraordinary volumes of corn in Ukraine. With farmers holding back Brazil will hardly be able to ship as much soy in March and the Red Sea crisis will prompt buyers in Europe to turn to Canda for canola.
Grains
Mar 1, 2024
BRUSSELS. Wheat is still under pressure and tensions are escalating in Poland over Ukraine’s transit shipments of corn and rapeseed. US exporters are struggling to compete with Brazil's soybeans.