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Corn: Slashed hopes for the earlier buoyant exports’ rate

February 16, 2018 at 4:34 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Exports have nosedived recently. Remaining stocks could not be depleted by domestic demand alone.

BULGARIA. The ample supply of corn within the Black sea region has already influenced local market sentiments, serving as a predicament for the maintenance of, if not the early buoyant export rate, at least a steadfast one. Yet, for the last few weeks, exports have been sluggish, at best.

Corn: have last year’s tough regional competitive pressures already settled down?

Yearly, exports to the world lag insignificantly behind. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the end of last week, total exports amounted to 691,080 mt, which is just 2.77% below shipped quantities from last year at the same time. Although insignificant, the number woke up not-long forgotten memories from regional competitive forces during last season, which nailed carry-over quite high - at 580,000 mt. Last year, tough regional competition swayed exports onto a sluggish trajectory till the end of the season.

       Harvest 2017-18

(01.09.2017 - 09.02.2018)

            units in MT

Beginning availability

580,000

Aggregate output

2,315,387

Imports

7,621

Domestic consumption

580,000

   food & industrial usage

220,000

   Feed

360,000

Exports to the world

691,080

   to EU markets

   574,857

   to rest of the world

   116,223

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Shipped volumes abroad, which were buoyant in the few months after harvest, actually have plummeted recently.  The sluggish export demand has not succeeded in destabilizing price levels for a few weeks now, though. According to local authorities, average purchasing prices stood firmly at 0.140 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria, which are still higher than average monthly prices during the previous months. Although domestic consumption has significantly increased on a year-to-year basis (by 20.08%), domestic demand alone could not deplete remaining stocks by the beginning of harvest 2018-19. By the 9th of February 2018, according to local authorities, reserves stood at 1,631,928 mt.

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