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Desiccated coconuts: crop losses and delivery delays

November 19, 2025 at 12:41 PM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. Several typhoons have hit the Philippines, causing flooding in growing areas and crop losses. Rising demand in the first Quarter of 2026 could lead to a raw material shortage.

Importers need to stock up soon

Global demand for desiccated coconuts is lower than expected in the Q4 of 2025, as the experts at JCP International explain in their latest report. They cite buyers' resistance to the very high prices in the first half of the year as the reason for this. As a result, few long-term contracts were concluded. However, market experts assume that the lowest price has now been reached, and T.M. Duché also reports that there have been no further price declines for eleven weeks.

JCP also reports that the time has now come in the growing countries when availability is declining and supply is becoming scarce. This also limits delivery flexibility and argues against further price reductions. Meanwhile, the target markets in Europe, the Middle East and North America are reporting low inventories, which are continuing to shrink due to slower arrivals. Importers have largely refrained from making large purchases in recent months, meaning that they will soon have to restock, ideally before Q1 2026.

The experts at JCP emphasise that the current weakness in prices is not due to an oversupply of raw materials, but rather to weak demand. On the contrary, if demand increases significantly, there could be a raw material shortage. This increase in demand could come as early as Q1 2026, not least because Ramadan begins in February and Chinese importers are stocking up for the Chinese New Year.

Typhoons cause flooding

The Philippines has been hit by several severe typhoons in recent weeks, which have left their mark. There is talk of severe damage to infrastructure, which is also slowing down logistical processes, and flooding in coconut-growing regions. This has caused damage to coconut palms and developing coconuts, leading to local crop failures and harvest delays. The typhoon season is now coming to an end, but a certain residual risk remains. Other countries in Southeast Asia are also affected by losses due to persistent rainfall and flooding, which could lead to delivery delays and rising prices in the coming weeks.

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price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
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price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines 
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