Free of charge

Desiccated coconuts: market remains extremely volatile

January 15, 2025 at 3:43 PM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

MANILA. Many unpredictable factors make it very difficult to forecast the coconut market for 2025. However, the shortage of raw materials and low stocks are likely to lead to price increases.

Stable exports in 2024

The experts at T.M. Duché ventured an outlook for the coconut market in 2025 at the beginning of the year. Market players at all stages of the value chain are likely to be confronted with various hurdles, including lower production volumes, a corresponding shortage of raw materials and geopolitical tensions.

Philippine desiccated coconut exports proved to be very resilient in 2024 and were 3.8% higher in the January-November period than in the same period of the previous year. Most producers were able to increase their exports, especially in the second half of the year, but then there was a big bang when a major producer in the Philippines shut down its largest production facility. It is currently uncertain whether and when this will be put back into operation in 2025.

Rains give hope

Exports of high-quality coconuts had already fallen in June, and buyers in Europe and the Middle East in particular are feeling the effects of this shortage and are desperate to find the right goods. T.M. Duché also reports that the situation in the USA is a little more relaxed and there are still some coconut stocks here, so the supply chain is much more stable. However, if the decline in exports from the Philippines continues, this could also change soon. Last year's drought significantly affected production and the quality of coconuts; however, current rainfall gives market players hope that this problem will be less pronounced in 2025.

Transportation costs could rise

According to the market experts, high competitive pressure and scarce supplies worldwide are likely to lead to unavoidable price increases, especially as demand continues to rise. Transportation costs could also rise, partly due to global economic uncertainties and partly due to the fact that detours still have to be made around the Red Sea. There are also other unpredictable factors such as inflation, longer transit times, customs changes (e.g. on the part of the USA), etc. In summary, the coconut market will continue to be extremely volatile in 2025 and it will be difficult for all market players to plan for the long term.

View more
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Sri Lanka
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines 
price chart, coconut oil, Indonesia
more price charts

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
Aug 20, 2026
SACRAMENTO/REUS. With harvesting well underway a more consistent picture is emerging for US almonds. Harvest reports are also impacting prices. INC estimates predict a similar kernel production to last year.
Nuts
Aug 20, 2026
ORDU/REUS. With TMO and free market prices diverging for hazelnuts the market is anxiously waiting for growers to act. Anticipation is that new crop arrivals may be delayed. Production estimates have changed for Italy.
Dried Fruit
Aug 20, 2026
REUS/BRUSSELS. Higher production volumes in the US are expected to offset the decline in Canada. According to the INC, global production will therefore be roughly on a par with last year’s levels.
Dried Fruit
Aug 19, 2026
REUS/BRUSSELS. EU countries have increased their prune imports. Goods are available at lower prices on the European spot market. The INC’s production forecasts are positive.