Ukraine war plays decisive role
After an eventful 2022, the market experts at T.M. Duché have ventured to forecast the coconut market in 2023. With regard to palm oil, the market is of course strongly influenced by the other edible oils such as soy, rapeseed and sunflower. The war in Ukraine plays a decisive role here, as both Russia and Ukraine itself are the world's largest suppliers of sunflower seeds. According to T.M. Duché, the demand for palm oil already increased last year due to the logistical problems, and it is quite possible that this trend will continue in 2023. At the beginning of the year, palm oil prices had already risen and cracked the USD 4,000/mt mark, not least because China abandoned its zero-covid policy, making it much easier to trade with the big buyer.
Economic crisis dampens purchasing power
After having to cope with frequent problems such as labour shortages and adverse weather conditions last year, growers are cautiously optimistic about an improvement in the current year. The development of demand remains exciting because, according to T.M. Duché, the global economic crisis could cause demand from important buyers like Europe and the USA to decrease. This has already become apparent in Q3 and Q4 of 2022. According to the experts, the supply of dried coconuts and desiccated coconuts should cover the demand, as the weather in the growing regions has been favourable so far.
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