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Desiccated coconuts: situation in the Red Sea could ease

January 29, 2025 at 12:50 PM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. With the ceasefire in the Gaza war, the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have agreed to temporarily cease their attacks on non-Israeli ships; this announcement is fuelling hope, but is currently still being treated with great caution.

Search for new suppliers

As the market experts at T.M. Duché report, prices for desiccated coconuts on the Philippine domestic market have risen slightly in recent months, mainly due to the short supply and high demand. Exports increased by 14.2% to 15,079 mt in November 2024 compared to the same month last year. Most suppliers also recorded an increase in exports in December, although one major producer suffered a noticeable decline after laying off 3,200 employees; according to T.M. Duché, this poses significant challenges for many customers and increased demand for new suppliers is therefore observed in Q1 2025.

Meanwhile, coconut oil prices are extremely volatile. According to the market experts, they were around USD 2,000/mt at the beginning of January, slightly above the prices of December 2024. November exports increased by 4% compared to the same month last year, with the US and the EU being among the largest buyers.

Fragile ceasefire

In the Red Sea, the Houthi rebels announced after the ceasefire in the Gaza conflict that they would temporarily cease attacks on non-Israeli ships, but would resume them as soon as the US, UK or Israel launch further attacks. Cautious optimism is spreading in the market, but shipping companies remain cautious for the time being.

Shortage of goods keeps prices high

The experts at JCP International also emphasise the considerable shortage of raw materials. Important producing countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam were severely affected by the La Niña weather phenomenon, which caused destruction and crop failures with heavy rainfall, flooding and typhoons. The processing factories in these countries are now finding it difficult to obtain the necessary raw materials; in Indonesia and Vietnam, capacity utilisation is said to be as low as 10-20% in some cases. The shortage of goods and high prices are therefore likely to dominate the first half of 2025, according to JCP.

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