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Hazelnuts: fishy production estimates issued in Turkey

June 2, 2020 12:05 PM, Der AUDITOR
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ORDU. Turkey's statistical service TURKSTAT has issued official prodcution estimates. Market players, however, reckon that...

... the estimates are deliberately kept low at 600,000 metric tonnes to stabilise prices. The market is rather reckoning with a larger production of around 650.000 metric tonnes. Although this ranges much lower than last year's production (775,000-790,000 mt), it still ranges in line with an average production. More accurate estimates are, however, only possible within the next few months.

Exports hit record-high levels

Market players reckon that carry-overs will be limited this season. Overseas demand will prove decisive for the prices in the new season. Exports reached a record volume of nearly 300,000 metric tonnes at the end of May. Italy's decline in production has most certainly boosted demand for hazelnut kernels from Turkey this season. Production is anticipated at 100,000-120,000 metric tonnes in Italy this year. Market players, therefore, estimate that Turkey will export around 240,000-280,000 metric tonnes of hazelnut kernels  (480,000-560,000 mt of in-shells) in 2020/2021. At present the farmgate prices have, however, risen from TRY 24 per kg to TRY 26 per kg.

Lower prices for the new crop

Although reports state that information on the new crop is very much sought after, the willingness to buy remains restraint. No major contracts have been entered so far. At the start of the season, prices may well range lower than the current levels since farmers require cash to pay their harvest workers. In addition, it should be noted that the prices for almonds have decline drastically, which may add pressure to the hazelnut market. It remains to be seen in how far it makes sense for the TMO to step in. Even the purchase of small volumes would support prices.

Hazelnuts, Turkey

Size

EUR/kg

Natural, 11-13 mm

7.30

Diced, 2-4 mm

7.85

Meal, 0-2 mm

7.05

Hazelnut paste

6.50

DDP Germany

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