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Macadamias: Industry calls INC estimates into question

June 19, 2019 at 12:58 PM , Der AUDITOR
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CANBERRA. Although the International Nut Council (INC) anticipated a growth in global supplies during the Congress in May, the figures presented are now being called into question. Leading market players paint a less optimistic picture.

Disappointing outlook

The drought in Kenya and Malawi prompted the INC to revise this year’s production estimates in May. Thereby estimating this year’s global supplies at 232,428 mt. Although this represent an increase of 4% over 2018, market players were highly disappointed by the revision. As Green and Gold Macadamias state these supplies are quite tight since buyers are eager to experiment with and invest in different macadamia products and the market has an enormous growth potential.

Although drastic declines have been noted in Kenya and Malawi, production is set to rise in South Africa. More recent assessments issued by the Global Trading & Agency state that although production may be down in the northern parts of South Africa, yields are higher than expected. China has, in addition, recorded a 40% rise in supplies, which are, however, largely destined for domestic consumption. Although the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) was initially reckoning with a record crop in March, growing was slower than expetd and production will most certainly be smaller than anticipated.

In-shell production estimates in mt

Country

2018

2019

Diff.

South Africa

56,550

58,500

+3%

Australia

52,900*

53,500*

+1%

Kenya

38,500

32,000

-20%

Malawi

6,980

6,516

-7%

Others

68,707

81,912

+19%

Total

223,537

232,428

+4%

INC, *AMS 10% moisture March estimate


Kernel production to fall short of expectations

When taking kernel production into consideration the picture supplies are even tighter than expected. Kernel production is currently estimated at 60,630 mt. Although this presents a 2.23% rise over last year market players call attention to the fact that smaller nut sizes have been reported in Australia, South Africa and Kenya. This has prompted Green and Gold Macadamias to expect supplies to range lower than anticipated or even to drop below 2018.

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