Macadamias: Industry calls INC estimates into question
June 19, 2019 at 12:58 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Disappointing outlook
The drought in Kenya and Malawi prompted the INC to revise this year’s production estimates in May. Thereby estimating this year’s global supplies at 232,428 mt. Although this represent an increase of 4% over 2018, market players were highly disappointed by the revision. As Green and Gold Macadamias state these supplies are quite tight since buyers are eager to experiment with and invest in different macadamia products and the market has an enormous growth potential.
Although drastic declines have been noted in Kenya and Malawi, production is set to rise in South Africa. More recent assessments issued by the Global Trading & Agency state that although production may be down in the northern parts of South Africa, yields are higher than expected. China has, in addition, recorded a 40% rise in supplies, which are, however, largely destined for domestic consumption. Although the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) was initially reckoning with a record crop in March, growing was slower than expetd and production will most certainly be smaller than anticipated.
|
In-shell production estimates in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2018 |
2019 |
Diff. |
|
South Africa |
56,550 |
58,500 |
+3% |
|
Australia |
52,900* |
53,500* |
+1% |
|
Kenya |
38,500 |
32,000 |
-20% |
|
Malawi |
6,980 |
6,516 |
-7% |
|
Others |
68,707 |
81,912 |
+19% |
|
Total |
223,537 |
232,428 |
+4% |
|
INC, *AMS 10% moisture March estimate |
|||
Kernel production to fall short of expectations
When taking kernel production into consideration the picture supplies are even tighter than expected. Kernel production is currently estimated at 60,630 mt. Although this presents a 2.23% rise over last year market players call attention to the fact that smaller nut sizes have been reported in Australia, South Africa and Kenya. This has prompted Green and Gold Macadamias to expect supplies to range lower than anticipated or even to drop below 2018.
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