Pecans: sharply revised estimates
December 10, 2025 at 12:58 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Tight US supplies
Recent INC estimates show that global in-shell production will rise by 5% in the current season as opposed to last year. Based on pre-harvest forecasts the INC anticipates an 8% rise in US production to 129,500 mt. Contrary to this, Mexican-based supplier Pecaninis, however, expects a 6% decline in US production as yields are low in Texas and Georgia. Supplies are also relatively tight this season.
Downturn in Mexico and record in South Africa
While Pecaninis anticipates a 15% decline in production in Mexico due to drought, the INC is more upbeat as the on-year in the state of Sonora should partially offset the downturn. In South Africa, SAPPA has reported that this year’s production reached a record 50,030 mt. The quality is also said to be exceptional. According to the INC in-shell exports are going well with China as the main destination.
Floods in China and Brazil
Although floods impacted nut set in China during the bloom period, production has still risen sharply by 86% over last year as many new trees have started bearing fruit. Australia also reports a strong on-year, and young trees should boost production in 2026. Brazil has also witnessed a stunning 75% rise in production this year. While the country has experienced two seasons of floods and drought, anticipation is that production will double to 7,000 mt in 2026. Yet, new plantings are only progressing slowly and limited production has driven up farmgate prices to record highs.
|
Global pecan production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
120,200 |
129,500 |
7.7% |
|
Mexico |
127,100 |
115,000 |
-9.5% |
|
South Africa |
37,500 |
50,030* |
33.4% |
|
China |
3,500 |
6,500 |
85.7% |
|
Australia |
2,540 |
3,600 |
41.7% |
|
Brazil |
2,000 |
3,500 |
75.0% |
|
Argentina |
3,000 |
3,000 |
0.0% |
|
Others |
3,600 |
3,800 |
5.6% |
|
Total |
299,440 |
314,930 |
5.2% |
|
South African Pecan Nut Producers Association (SAPPA), Argentine Pecan Committee, Brazilian Nuts, Chestnuts and Dried Fruit Association, and other INC sources |
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