Macadamias: South African suppliers look for alternatives

Global crop declines

According to Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC), around one-fifth of South Africa's annual macadamia production is exported to the US. The 30% tariffs announced by President Trump could lead to losses of 460 million rand (25.7 million EUR) per year. Much of the 2024/25 crop has now been delivered to cracking facilities, and market expert Jan van der Merwe, managing director of Royal Macadamia in Levubu, told FreshPlaza that there has been a significant decline of an estimated 30% compared to last year.

The official crop forecast for South Africa for 2025 has been revised downwards from an initial 93,433 mt of dried in-shells to 85,166 mt. However, South Africa is not the only country struggling with crop declines this season. The Australian Macadamia Society says it is experiencing one of “most difficult and unpredictable seasons in recent years", which is why the original crop forecast has been reduced by almost a third to 55,960 mt of in-shell macadamias (3.5% moisture content).

Chinese market comes into focus

Despite the prospect of 30% tariffs from the US, Van der Merwe remains optimistic. He believes there will be no difficulty in finding buyers for South African macadamias, with the possible exception of a few varieties that are traditionally sold to the US market. However, quality could be a hurdle, as the most recently harvested nuts show deficiencies due to pest infestation and irregular ripening. Trade relations between China and the USA also play an important role for South African suppliers. In May, SAMAC welcomed Chinese agricultural wholesalers to visit South African macadamia plantations and shelling plants. In June, China announced that it would lift all trade tariffs on imported goods from 53 African countries. This will lead to macadamia producers in South Africa also focusing more on the Chinese market.

Is an agreement possible?

Currently, processors are mainly reporting a surplus of the 4L variety, which is traditionally popular but is currently hardly being sold to the US. This will also have an impact on prices, and the costs of the increased tariffs will probably have to be borne by both consumers and producers. Market players are currently waiting with bated breath to see whether the South African government can reach an agreement with the US before the end of the month.

No transit through Kenya

According to FreshPlaza, Kenya has tightened its policy on raw macadamia nuts. Direct exports have been banned for some time, but now the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) has issued a further directive prohibiting transit through Kenya. Regardless of their origin, raw macadamias may no longer be exported from Kenya, and foreign exporters who have previously used Kenya as a transit country are being asked to look for alternative ports. According to the AFA, several shipments have already been intercepted in recent weeks. The measures are intended to support local farmers and processors in order to stimulate industrial growth.

EU import value rises significantly

EU macadamia imports remain surprisingly stable at last year's level. South Africa remains the most important supplier, delivering an impressive 19.4% more than in the same period last year, with 2,108 mt between 1 January and 20 July. Australia also recorded significant increases in exports to the EU, while the second most important supplier, Kenya, shipped almost 35% fewer macadamias to EU countries. Overall, the EU imported 3,864 mt of macadamias worth a good EUR 42.66 million in the period mentioned. This means that the volume remains unchanged year-on-year, while the import value has risen by 45.3%; this is due to the significantly higher average price of EUR 11.04/kg (2024: EUR 7.60/kg). The largest buyers within the EU were the Netherlands, Germany and Spain.

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