Grains - Grains

Millet: global production to decline by 4% in 2023/2024

February 7, 2024 at 8:47 AM , Der AUDITOR
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DALIAN. Large stocks and low demand could put pressure on prices; this is not immediately apparent to foreign buyers due to increased freight costs, nevertheless it is causing concern for Chinese exporters.

High availability weighs on prices

There is still sufficient stock available on the Chinese millet market. However, export demand remains moderate. The Chinese people will be celebrating their New Year this and next week, but domestic demand has also been lower than expected. In view of the overall low buying interest and sufficient availability, market players fear that they will have to reduce their prices in the near future.

Due to the current situation in the Red Sea, freight costs are comparatively high, which means that prices for foreign buyers have risen, although prices in the Chinese market have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Conventional millet is being offered for USD 1,190/mt FOB Dalian, while exporters are asking around USD 1,260/mt FOB for hulled organic millet.

Millet, hulled, China

99.9% purity

USD/mt

Conventional

1,190

Organic

1,260

FOB Dalian

Global decline in production expected

According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture, global millet production will total 30.802 million mt in 2023/2024, which corresponds to a decline of 4.1% compared to the previous year. Large producing countries such as India (-10% to 12.2 million mt) and Niger (-7% to 3.4 million mt) in particular are said to have experienced a slump in production, while crops in Nigeria (-1.5% to 2 million mt), Mali (-1.8% to 1.8 million mt) and Sudan (-4.5% to 1.6 million mt) are also declining. Meanwhile, China's crop is expected to remain at 2.7 million mt, as last year, while Ethiopia (+17% to 1.1 million mt) and Burkina Faso (+10% to 1 million mt) are even anticipating an increase in production.

Global millet production, in 1,000 mt

Country

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

India

13,506

12,200

-9.7%

Niger

3,657

3,400

-7.0%

China

2,700

2,700

0.0%

Nigeria

2,030

2,000

-1.5%

Mali

1,833

1,800

-1.8%

Sudan

1,675

1,600

-4.5%

Ethiopia

942

1,100

16.8%

Burkina Faso

908

1,000

10.1%

Senegal

1,097

1,000

-8.8%

Chad

694

700

0.9%

Others

3,062

3,302

7.8%

Total

32,104

30,802

-4.1%

USDA

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