Mustard seeds: acreage to halve
April 3, 2025 at 9:30 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Massive correction of the cultivation forecast
According to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, it was already clear that acreage under mustard seeds in North America would be low this year. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada confirmed this trend and has now made a drastic downward revision to the 2025/2026 sowing forecast for mustard seed production in its latest seasonal report. At the beginning of the year, the forecast was still 180,000 ha, which would have been 60,000 ha less than in the 2024/2025 season. Now, however, the cultivation forecast in the March report has been reduced to 117,000 ha, which would halve the sowing year-on-year. Yields are also expected to be slightly lower, meaning that Canadian mustard seed production could fall by 55.6% to 85,000 mt in 2025/2026. The USA and the EU are still seen as the most important sales markets for Canadian mustard seeds.
Due to the EU import duties on Russian mustard seeds, Canadian traders had actually expected sowings to pick up this year in order to increase the potential for shipments to Europe. The price decline expected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada also appears to be quite optimistic under these circumstances. After the reduced cultivation estimates became known, trading activity in the Canadian mustard seed market initially increased, resulting in slight price increases. However, prices have since stabilised again.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
258,000 |
245,000 |
-5.0% |
245,000 |
117,000 |
-52.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
251,000 |
243,000 |
-3.2% |
243,000 |
115,000 |
-52.7% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.68 |
0.79 |
16.2% |
0.79 |
0.74 |
-6.3% |
|
Production (mt) |
171,000 |
192,000 |
12.3% |
192,000 |
85,000 |
-55.7% |
|
Imports (mt) |
16,000 |
9,000 |
-43.8% |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
226,000 |
290,000 |
28.3% |
290,000 |
249,000 |
-14.1% |
|
Exports (mt) |
96,000 |
95,000 |
-1.0% |
95,000 |
95,000 |
0.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
42,000 |
40,000 |
-4.8% |
40,000 |
39,000 |
-2.5% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
88,000 |
155,000 |
76.1% |
155,000 |
115,000 |
-25.8% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
1,280 |
835 |
-34.8% |
835 |
815 |
-2.4% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
Shipments from Canada slow down
In the first nine months of the 2024/2025 season (01/07/2024-23/03/2025), a total of 55,076 mt of mustard seeds worth EUR 40.829 million were imported into the EU from third countries, meaning that the import volume fell by 20.2% year-on-year and the import value even dropped by 34.4%. This is partly due to the fact that imports from Russia fell significantly (-73.8% to 10,112 mt) and deliveries from Canada also shrank by 1.3% to 15,727 mt. In contrast, however, imports from countries such as Ukraine (+72.4% to 19,940 mt), Kazakhstan (+278.8% to 7,353 mt) and Moldova (+705.4% to 1,482 mt) rose massively.
The most important buyer countries within the EU, such as Germany (-27.7% to 18,260 mt), Poland (-37.4% to 14,350 mt) and Belgium (-35.2% to 7,410 mt), have all significantly reduced their imports.
Prices for mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.95% purity, of Ukrainian origin are currently at a level of EUR 770/mt DDP Germany.
|
EU mustard seed imports, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Ukraine |
11,569 |
19,940 |
72.4% |
|
Canada |
15,933 |
15,727 |
-1.3% |
|
Russia |
38,624 |
10,112 |
-73.8% |
|
Kazakhstan |
1,941 |
7,353 |
278.8% |
|
Moldova |
184 |
1,482 |
705.4% |
|
Others |
770 |
462 |
-40.0% |
|
Total |
69,021 |
55,076 |
-20.2% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/07-23/03 12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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