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Mustard seeds: cultivation forecast raised by 15%

March 2, 2023 at 2:50 PM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has revised its forecast for the 2023/2024 Canadian mustard seed season. They now expect a larger acreage than initially estimated.

230,000 ha of mustard seeds in Canada

In February, the Canadian mustard seed market came under pressure and prices followed a downward spiral. However, the situation stabilised again at the turn of the month. The market is particularly lacking in spot enquiries, because according to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, many buyers are covered. Despite the recent price corrections, prices for Canadian mustard seeds are still at a significantly higher level than in previous years.

Meanwhile, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made significant adjustments to its seasonal forecast for the 2023/2024 mustard seed crop. Originally, the experts had assumed a significant decline in acreage to 200,000 ha, but now it is expected to be even slightly larger than last year at 230,000 ha. Higher yields would thus ensure that production would increase by 17% to 190,000 mt compared to the previous year. Under these circumstances, the average price for the coming season is estimated at CAD 1,870/mt, about 26% less than this season.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

230,000

2.2%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

222,000

1.4%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.55

0.74

34.5%

0.74

0.86

16.2%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

190,000

17.3%

Imports (mt)

9,000

9,000

0.0%

9,000

7,000

-22.2%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

177,000

36.2%

177,000

237,000

33.9%

Exports (mt)

106,000

115,000

8.5%

115,000

120,000

4.3%

Domestic consumption (mt)

18,000

22,000

22.2%

22,000

22,000

0.0%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

6,000

40,000

566.7%

40,000

95,000

137.5%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,525

-12.5%

2,525

1,870

-25.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany's imports have increased

Germany's mustard seed imports 2022 were around 4% higher than the import volume in 2021, with a total of 39,904 mt of mustard seeds imported. Over the entire calendar year, Russia was by far the most important trading partner for this commodity, despite declining shipments, with more than 19,000 mt finding their way into the German market. At the same time, imports from Ukraine (+9% to 8,064 mt), Canada (+67% to 7,211 mt), the Czech Republic (+15% to 1,469 mt) and Kazakhstan (+19% to 859 mt) also increased.

However, it is important to note that mustard seed imports have slowed significantly since the start of the 2022/2023 season. Between September and December 2022, Germany imported 15,405 mt of mustard seeds, compared to 17,459 mt in the same period last year. Russia's shipments had fallen by a third to 7,226 mt in this period and Kazakhstan's deliveries also shrank by 37% to 345 mt. However, Shipments from Canada almost doubled year-on-year to 3,431 mt, and imports from Ukraine (+14% to 2,552 mt), the Czech Republic (+68% to 886 mt) and Poland (+31% to 342 mt) also increased.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021

2022

Diff.

Russia

21,646

19,394

-10.4%

Ukraine

7,432

8,064

8.5%

Canada

4,318

7,211

67.0%

Czech Republic

1,279

1,469

14.9%

Kazakhstan

722

859

19.0%

India

249

784

214.9%

Poland

741

646

-12.8%

USA

0

569

-

Estonia

1.429

326

-77.2%

Austria

30

264

780.0%

Others

468

318

-32.1%

Total

38,314

39,904

4.1%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Jan-Dec

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

White mustard seeds slightly cheaper

In the European spot market, white mustard seeds from Ukraine are priced at EUR 1,400/mt FCA Poland. Meanwhile, black mustard seeds from Russia cost EUR 2,300/kg FCA Poland.

Mustard seeds, Eastern Europe

Quality

EUR/mt

Sinapis Alba, 99.9%, Ukraine

1,400

Black, 99.9%, Russia

2,300

FCA Poland

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