Mustard seeds: good crop forecasts despite yield corrections
October 31, 2024 at 12:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Lower prices offer potential
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has made some noticeable adjustments in its October report on Canadian mustard seeds in 2024/2025. The average yield per hectare is expected to be around 5% lower than previously expected, although the current yield of 0.89 mt/ha is still 31% higher than last year's result. As a result, Canadian mustard seed production is expected to increase by 23.4% year-on-year to 211,000 mt despite lower acreage. However, a smaller export volume and lower domestic deliveries in the 2023/2024 season than originally assumed will compensate for this to a certain extent. The average price is even expected to fall to CAD 830/mt this season.
According to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, prices and demand are currently stable, although November is an important time for the market as growers are already drawing up their cultivation plans for the coming year. Due to the higher EU import duties on Russian mustard seeds, Canadian goods could become even more interesting for these buyers in the coming months. Alongside Ukraine, Canada is already the EU's most important supplier.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
258,000 |
245,000 |
-5.0% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
219,000 |
251,000 |
14.6% |
251,000 |
237,000 |
-5.6% |
|
Yields (mt/ha) |
0.74 |
0.68 |
-8.1% |
0.68 |
0.89 |
30.9% |
|
Production (mt) |
162,000 |
171,000 |
5.6% |
171,000 |
211,000 |
23.4% |
|
Imports (mt) |
11,000 |
16,000 |
45.5% |
16,000 |
9,000 |
-43.8% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
189,000 |
226,000 |
19.6% |
226,000 |
308,000 |
36.3% |
|
Exports (mt) |
110,000 |
96,000 |
-12.7% |
96,000 |
110,000 |
14.6% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
40,000 |
42,000 |
5.0% |
42,000 |
43,000 |
2.4% |
|
Carry-over supplies (mt) |
40,000 |
88,000 |
120.0% |
88,000 |
155,000 |
76.1% |
|
Avg. CAD/mt |
2,140 |
1,280 |
-40.2% |
1,280 |
830 |
-35.2% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
EU imports down by 20%
In the first four months of the 2024/2025 season (1 July to 28 October 2024), a total of 23,272 mt of mustard seeds was imported into the EU from third countries, a year-on-year decrease of around a fifth. This is partly due to the fact that imports from Russia (-93.4% to 1,186 mt) have fallen significantly. Since 1 July, imports from Russia into the EU have been subject to higher import duties. In contrast, however, imports from countries such as Ukraine (+230.3% to 9,941 mt), Canada (+22.8% to 8,369 mt) and Kazakhstan (+544.4% to 3,248 mt) have risen considerably. Important buyer countries within the EU such as Germany (+21.5% to 6,590 mt), Poland (-55.7% to 5,360 mt) and Belgium (-23.7% to 3,900 mt) have all significantly reduced their imports.
In the period from September 2023 to August 2024, Germany imported 56,740 mt of mustard seeds, an increase of 18.1% compared to the same period last year. Shipments from Russia had increased significantly once again before the introduction of higher import duties, meaning that they rose by 25.7% year-on-year to 26,654 mt despite everything – imports in July and August were then only a few hundred mt. Imports from Ukraine (+359.5% to 18,076483 mt) and Poland (+32% to 2,680 mt) were higher, while shipments from Canada (-55.3% to 6,862 mt) and the Czech Republic (-64.6% to 1,231 mt) declined.
|
EU mustard seed imports, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Ukraine |
3,010 |
9,941 |
230.3% |
|
Canada |
6,816 |
8,369 |
22.8% |
|
Kazakhstan |
504 |
3,248 |
544.4% |
|
Russia |
18,042 |
1,186 |
-93.4% |
|
Moldova |
133 |
340 |
155.6% |
|
Others |
641 |
188 |
-70.7% |
|
Total |
29,146 |
23,272 |
-20.2% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, provisional data, 01/07-28/10 12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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