Mustard seeds: price forecast for Canada raised again
October 28, 2021 at 9:29 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Yields remain low
The experts are still sticking to the production estimates of 71,000 mt of mustard seeds, which would be the worst result in around 40 years. Although the acreage this year was larger than in 2020, the extremely low yield of 0.6 mt/ha is responsible for this enormous deficit. Canadian mustard seed prices continue to trend upwards, with brown and yellow mustard seeds now trading at similar levels, according to experts at Rayglen Commodities. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's seasonal forecast reckons an average price of CAD 1,320/mt, which would put prices around 50% higher than in the 2020/2021 season. Meanwhile, in Europe, mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 98% purity from the Czech 2021 crop is trading at prices of EUR 1.10/kg DDP Germany.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2019/20 vs 2020/21 |
2020/21 vs 2021/22 |
||||
|
Area sown (ha) |
161,000 |
104,000 |
-35.4% |
104,000 |
124,000 |
19.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
155,000 |
101,000 |
-34.8% |
101,000 |
119,000 |
17.8% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.87 |
0.98 |
12.6% |
0.98 |
0.60 |
-38.8% |
|
Production (mt) |
135,000 |
99,000 |
-26.7% |
99,000 |
71,000 |
-28.3% |
|
Imports (mt) |
7,000 |
6,000 |
-14.3% |
6,000 |
7,000 |
16.7% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
214,000 |
166,000 |
-22.4% |
166,000 |
118,000 |
-28.9% |
|
Exports (mt) |
112,000 |
111,000 |
-0.9% |
111,000 |
75,000 |
-32.4% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
42,000 |
15,000 |
-64.3% |
15,000 |
38,000 |
153.3% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
61,000 |
40,000 |
-34.4% |
40,000 |
5,000 |
-87.5% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
700 |
885 |
26.4% |
885 |
1,320 |
49.2% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Germany increases imports from the Czech Republic by 42%
In the 2020/2021 season (Sep-Aug), Germany imported a total of 31,145 mt of mustard seeds, about 25% less than this time last year. Russia remains the most important supplier, even though imports from there fell by almost 8%. Even more significant are the declines in shipments from Ukraine (-47%), Canada (-32%), Estonia (-36%) and Kazakhstan (-80%). In contrast, German mustard seed imports from the Czech Republic (+42%) and Poland (+221%) increased significantly.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2019/20 |
2020/21 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
18,873 |
17,457 |
-7.5% |
|
Ukraine |
13,973 |
7,467 |
-46.6% |
|
Canada |
4,635 |
3,138 |
-32.3% |
|
Estonia |
1,538 |
984 |
-36.0% |
|
Czech Republic |
546 |
777 |
42.3% |
|
Poland |
185 |
594 |
221.1% |
|
Kazakhstan |
1,207 |
242 |
-80.0% |
|
Others |
501 |
486 |
-3.0% |
|
Total |
41,458 |
31,145 |
-24.9% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Aug *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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