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Mustard seeds: price forecast for Canada raised again

October 28, 2021 9:29 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada once again updated its forecasts for the current 2021/2022 season. After the former massive cut in the crop estimate, this remained unchanged for the time being, but price forecasts were increased by a further 10%.

Yields remain low

The experts are still sticking to the production estimates of 71,000 mt of mustard seeds, which would be the worst result in around 40 years. Although the acreage this year was larger than in 2020, the extremely low yield of 0.6 mt/ha is responsible for this enormous deficit. Canadian mustard seed prices continue to trend upwards, with brown and yellow mustard seeds now trading at similar levels, according to experts at Rayglen Commodities. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's seasonal forecast reckons an average price of CAD 1,320/mt, which would put prices around 50% higher than in the 2020/2021 season. Meanwhile, in Europe, mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 98% purity from the Czech 2021 crop is trading at prices of EUR 1.10/kg DDP Germany.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2019/20 vs 2020/21

2020/21 vs 2021/22

Area sown (ha)

161,000

104,000

-35.4%

104,000

124,000

19.2%

Area harvested (ha)

155,000

101,000

-34.8%

101,000

119,000

17.8%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.87

0.98

12.6%

0.98

0.60

-38.8%

Production (mt)

135,000

99,000

-26.7%

99,000

71,000

-28.3%

Imports (mt)

7,000

6,000

-14.3%

6,000

7,000

16.7%

Total supplies (mt)

214,000

166,000

-22.4%

166,000

118,000

-28.9%

Exports (mt)

112,000

111,000

-0.9%

111,000

75,000

-32.4%

Domestic consumption (mt)

42,000

15,000

-64.3%

15,000

38,000

153.3%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

61,000

40,000

-34.4%

40,000

5,000

-87.5%

Avg price in CAD/mt

700

885

26.4%

885

1,320

49.2%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany increases imports from the Czech Republic by 42%

In the 2020/2021 season (Sep-Aug), Germany imported a total of 31,145 mt of mustard seeds, about 25% less than this time last year. Russia remains the most important supplier, even though imports from there fell by almost 8%. Even more significant are the declines in shipments from Ukraine (-47%), Canada (-32%), Estonia (-36%) and Kazakhstan (-80%). In contrast, German mustard seed imports from the Czech Republic (+42%) and Poland (+221%) increased significantly.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Country

2019/20

2020/21

Diff.

Russia

18,873

17,457

-7.5%

Ukraine

13,973

7,467

-46.6%

Canada

4,635

3,138

-32.3%

Estonia

1,538

984

-36.0%

Czech Republic

546

777

42.3%

Poland

185

594

221.1%

Kazakhstan

1,207

242

-80.0%

Others

501

486

-3.0%

Total

41,458

31,145

-24.9%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Aug

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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