Pecans: China, India and Mars as game changers

Turnaround in exports

According to the most recent Pecan Industry Position Report published by the American Pecan Council in July total pecans received stand 17% lower than last year at 282.473 million pounds. Imports, by contrast, range 14% higher at 201.015 million pounds (inshell basis). Shipments show two fundamental shifts this season as compared with the same period in 2023/2024. The first is that domestic and export shipments have taken opposing turns and the second that export demand for inshell pecans is much lower this season.

Domestic shipments have flatlined for shelled meats but have risen for inshells. Retail and grocery shipments have thereby dipped by less than 1% to 118.758 million pounds for shelled meats between September 2024 and July 2025 as compared with the same period last year, whereas retail and grocery shipments have risen by 7% to 36.310 million pounds. Contrary to this, exports have risen by 1% to 32.318 million pounds for shelled meats and have slumped by a stunning 91% for inshells, from 51.465 million pounds in 2023/2024 to as little as 5.493 million pounds in the current season. Unlike last year, shelled meat exports exceed inshell exports.

Shelled meat exports have, in fact risen by 1%. Canada is the main export destination, followed by Israel and the Netherlands.

Mixed conditions for US crop

As Farm Monitor reports the outlook for this year’s crop is mixed in Georgia. Excessive rains during the growing season have caused damage and helped diseases to spread. Farmers have had to spray more. Yet, cautious optimism prevails as yields should be better than expected with younger trees turning more productive.

In Texas, the situation is similar. Production estimates range at 28-32 million pounds for this year’s crop according to the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Studies in an interview with AgriLife Today. Specialist Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., explains that the normal production cycle of on and off years is out of sync. While a good year would produce around 50 million pounds, mixed conditions prevailed this year as some orchards received too much moisture and others not enough. By contrast, drought was the main reason for production declines in 2023 and 2024. This year, the fungal Scab disease is impacting several orchards with the spring rains turning out to be a mixed blessing. Problem is also that water availability does not always align with the production cycle of the trees. While water allotments were increased in El Paso this year, the region cannot expect a bumper crop as most trees are in an off year. Last year, the opposite problem prevailed as less water was available for tress in an on year.

China, India and Mars to revitalise demand

Demand is also an issue for pecans as wholesale prices have been too low since the pandemic. In the export market, hopes are presently directed towards China and India, which are both regarded as growth markets according to Blair Krebs, executive director of the Texas Pecan Growers Association. Trade tensions are, however, a problem and the question is in how far this goal can be achieved. Negotiations are still not producing a trade deal with China and US President Donal Trump has punished India with a 50% import tariff over its imports of Russian oil and weapons. Trade talks with India have, however, resumed and a deal may be reached soon.

Fact is that US inshell pecan exports to China have slumped by 90%, from 47.998 million pounds in September-July 2023/2024 to 4.870 million pounds in September to July 2024/2025. By contrast, US shelled pecan exports to India have more than doubled, from 241.680 million pounds in September-July 2023/2024 to 517.620 million pounds in September-July 2024/2025.

Domestically, Mars may drive demand as the confectionery giant intends to launch a test run for pecan Snickers. In addition, pecan growers in Texas can gain high prices in direct-to-consumer and retail market sales with customers valuing local produce.

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