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Walnuts: revised estimates

December 16, 2025 at 1:02 PM , Der AUDITOR
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REUS. While the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council predicted a 6% rise in global in-shell production for walnuts in May, this figure has now been cut to 4%. One driver are developments in China.

In-shell production to climb by 4%

According to the INC’s most recent estimates global in-shell production will range 4% higher than last year and global kernel production 8% higher at 1.194 million mt. Total in-shell supply will climb by 2%, from 2.766 million mt in 2024/2025 to 2.825 million mt in 2025/2026, and total kernel supply by 2%, from 1.206 million m tin 2024/2025 to 1.233 million mt in 2025/2026.

Mixed weather conditions in China

Unfavourable weather conditions in north and northwest China have prompted the INC to revise the country’s projection downwards with in-shell production now expected to come in 3% lower than last year. Harvesting started early in some areas due to low inventories, hot summer weather and the start of the holiday season. Shipments started early in Xinjiang at the start of September and the kernels are displaying a nice colour here.

According to the California Walnut Board US production should rise by 18%. This season saw replenished water reserves, great temperatures for early development as well as perfect weather conditions in spring and summer.

Favourable weather has also prompted production to bounce back in Chile this year. Although the export season started off with delays in India, demand has certainly improved this season with exports clearly up on last year. Developments in the orchards appear to be in line with expectations for the 2026 crop.

Global walnut production, in-shell basis (mt)

Country

2024/25

2025/26

Diff.

China

1,550,000

1,500,000

-3.2%

USA

547,000

645,000

17.9%

Chile

134,600

168,200

25.0%

Ukraine

88,800

100,800

13.5%

Romania

40,000

53,000

32.5%

Turkey

48,000

40,000

-16.7%

Iran

35,000

38,700

10.6%

France

25,000

35,000

40.0%

India

33,000

30,000

-9.1%

Argentina

21,000

22,000

4.8%

Spain

13,000

19,500

50.0%

Moldova

17,700

18,400

4.0%

Italy

14,900

15,000

0.7%

Portugal

11,100

12,200

10.0%

Hungary

14,000

11,900

-15.0%

Others

26,000

25,300

-2.7%

Total

2,619,100

2,735,000

4.4%

California Walnut Board and Commission, Chilenut, Walnut Growers Association of Türkiye, Portugal Nuts, and other INC sources
Nov 2025

 

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