Walnuts: revised estimates
December 16, 2025 at 1:02 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
In-shell production to climb by 4%
According to the INC’s most recent estimates global in-shell production will range 4% higher than last year and global kernel production 8% higher at 1.194 million mt. Total in-shell supply will climb by 2%, from 2.766 million mt in 2024/2025 to 2.825 million mt in 2025/2026, and total kernel supply by 2%, from 1.206 million m tin 2024/2025 to 1.233 million mt in 2025/2026.
Mixed weather conditions in China
Unfavourable weather conditions in north and northwest China have prompted the INC to revise the country’s projection downwards with in-shell production now expected to come in 3% lower than last year. Harvesting started early in some areas due to low inventories, hot summer weather and the start of the holiday season. Shipments started early in Xinjiang at the start of September and the kernels are displaying a nice colour here.
According to the California Walnut Board US production should rise by 18%. This season saw replenished water reserves, great temperatures for early development as well as perfect weather conditions in spring and summer.
Favourable weather has also prompted production to bounce back in Chile this year. Although the export season started off with delays in India, demand has certainly improved this season with exports clearly up on last year. Developments in the orchards appear to be in line with expectations for the 2026 crop.
|
Global walnut production, in-shell basis (mt) |
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|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,550,000 |
1,500,000 |
-3.2% |
|
USA |
547,000 |
645,000 |
17.9% |
|
Chile |
134,600 |
168,200 |
25.0% |
|
Ukraine |
88,800 |
100,800 |
13.5% |
|
Romania |
40,000 |
53,000 |
32.5% |
|
Turkey |
48,000 |
40,000 |
-16.7% |
|
Iran |
35,000 |
38,700 |
10.6% |
|
France |
25,000 |
35,000 |
40.0% |
|
India |
33,000 |
30,000 |
-9.1% |
|
Argentina |
21,000 |
22,000 |
4.8% |
|
Spain |
13,000 |
19,500 |
50.0% |
|
Moldova |
17,700 |
18,400 |
4.0% |
|
Italy |
14,900 |
15,000 |
0.7% |
|
Portugal |
11,100 |
12,200 |
10.0% |
|
Hungary |
14,000 |
11,900 |
-15.0% |
|
Others |
26,000 |
25,300 |
-2.7% |
|
Total |
2,619,100 |
2,735,000 |
4.4% |
|
California Walnut Board and Commission, Chilenut, Walnut Growers Association of Türkiye, Portugal Nuts, and other INC sources |
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