Pecans: US exports could be better
August 18, 2026 at 8:27 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Rise in export demand for inshells
According to the Monthly Report issued by the American Pecan Council for June in-shell exports stand out this season as this is the only category that has risen. While in-shell exports stood at 7.7 million pounds in September 2025 to June 2026, they have gained by 13% to 8.7 million pounds in the same period in the current season with China as the leading destination (-40% to 3.6 million pounds) and Mexico as the main driver (+215% to 3.5 million pounds). Retail/grocery in-shell shipments have, by contrast, fallen by 42%, from 36.8 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 13.8 million pounds in 2025/2026.
Shelled meat exports down
Shelled meat retail/grocery shipments are nearly flat at 111 million pounds as opposed to last year’s 112 million pounds. Yet, shelled meat exports are showing a noted downturn of 16%. At 294.6 million pounds total in-shell basis shipments, therefore, range 10% lower at 294.6 million pounds.
Shelled meat exports have declined to all destinations in the top ten, with the noted exception of Germany and Lithuania. Subtotal exports to Europe as the most important trading partner have, however, fallen by 17%, from 11.5 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 9.5 million pounds in the current season. Canada as leading destination is showing a 7% decline, followed by Israel with a 17% drop and the Netherlands with a 38% downturn. Shipments to Saudi Arabia have witnessed the sharpest decline of 54%. The Middle East conflict is clearly taking its toll on trade flows with the subtotal to the region standing 18% lower than last year’s 7.5 million pounds at 5.4 million pounds.
|
US pecan exports (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Canada |
5,454 |
5,092 |
-6.6% |
|
Israel |
4,500 |
3,759 |
-16.5% |
|
Netherlands |
3,533 |
2,553 |
-27.7% |
|
South Korea |
2,505 |
2,481 |
-1.0% |
|
UK |
2,344 |
1,870 |
-20.2% |
|
Germany |
837 |
1,514 |
80.2% |
|
Saudi Arabia |
2,014 |
924 |
-54.1% |
|
Lithuania |
636 |
654 |
2.8% |
|
France |
1,133 |
642 |
-43.3% |
|
Japan |
695 |
588 |
-15.4% |
|
Others |
6,188 |
4,989 |
-19.4% |
|
Total |
29,839 |
25,066 |
-16.0% |
|
American Pecan Council, 01/09-30/06 |
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Improved INC estimates
In the current NutFruit Magazine edition the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council has revised the production estimates for Mexico and South Africa slightly upwards. Mexico is still struggling with water availability and rising production costs. Yet, the planted area is firm and the country has a good infrastructure. In June, SAPPA issued a new estimate over 54,500 mt for South Africa. Production is on the rise here as orchards planted in recent years are now starting to bear fruit. South Africa exports as much as 95% of its crop to China, where production will also rise sharply in the coming years. US production is quite flat with New Mexico increasing output and the effects of recent hurricanes still need to be assessed in Georgia. Drought is also having an impact.
Expectation now is that global inshell production and supply will range 7% higher with global supply estimated at 353,660 mt as compared with the 329,470 mt registered for 2025/2026. The current projections for global kernel production and supply also stand 7% higher with kernel production expected to rise from 167,700 mt in 2025/2026 to 171,675 mt in 2026/2027 and global supply from 167,700 mt in 2025/2026 to 180,248 mt in 2026/2027.
|
Global pecan production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
129,500 |
130,000 |
0.4% |
|
Mexico |
116,500 |
120,000 |
3.0% |
|
South Africa |
50,250 |
54,500 |
8.5% |
|
China |
6,200 |
11,700 |
88.7% |
|
Brazil |
3,500 |
10,000 |
185.7% |
|
Australia |
3,600 |
3,400 |
-5.6% |
|
Argentina |
3,000 |
3,300 |
10.0% |
|
Others |
3,500 |
3,700 |
8.6% |
|
Total |
316,050 |
336,600 |
6.5% |
|
USDA, South African Pecan Nut Producers Association (SAPPA), Associaçᾶo Brasileira de Nozes, Castanhas e Frutas Secas, Argentine Pecan Committee and other INC sources |
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