Pecans: strong demand for US supplies
April 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Tariffs vs. high demand
Industry representatives are highly relieved that a 0% tariff still applies to pecan shipments from Mexico to the USA as the nut is covered by the United States, Mexico and Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). The 125% tariff applying to US imports in China, however, spells bad news. US pecan shipments have already taken a considerable hit this season and there is little chance of recovery with trade relations deteriorating between the two countries, despite pecans gaining popularity with consumers in China. The industry is also casting a nervous eye on possible counter measures that may apply in other important export destinations. Counter tariffs for US pecans are, however, not a matter of debate in the EU at present.
Despite all of this, Pecaninis reports that demand is strong in all markets. Expectation is that buyers still need to book supplies for the third and fourth quarters of the current year. On top of this, the USDA’s Agricultural and Marketing Service intends to buy around 6 million pounds of pecan pieces, which should support the market. At 20-30 million pounds cold storage supplies are also limited considering that demand is good.
South Africa as emerging producer
All eyes are set on next week’s INC Congress in Majorca, where the current trends, market dynamics and production figures will be discussed. In March, the INC issued the final production estimates for the current season in the “Global Statistical Review”. Global in-shell production declined by 7% in 2024/2025 as opposed to 2023/2024, mainly driven by downturns in Mexico and in the USA.
While unfavourable weather conditions, water scarcity and high input costs reduced production in Mexico, Hurricane Helene is responsible for crop losses in the US. Prospects for 2025/2026 are also far from encouraging in these two countries as output is expected to remain below average in Mexico, where no new trees have been planted in the last four years, and US production will take years to recover from the hurricane damages.
South Africa is, however, a different story. Production surged by 63% in 2024/2025 and this year’s harvest will start in May with highly encouraging early projections as the INC reports. Other stakeholders such as Pecan Report state that production will eventually reach 100,000 mt as growing conditions are ideal and there are close trading ties with China. South Africa, in fact, exports around 90% of production to China and the quality of the nuts are highly competitive, which is also fuelling demand in Europe.
Global in-shell supplies have declined by a more moderate 2% to 373,640 mt. Global kernel production is 5% down at 153,421 mt.
|
Global pecan production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Mexico |
141,850 |
127,100 |
-10.4% |
|
USA |
139,141 |
122,879 |
-11.7% |
|
South Africa |
23,000 |
37,500 |
63.0% |
|
China |
6,000 |
3,500 |
-41.7% |
|
Argentina |
3,000 |
3,000 |
0.0% |
|
Australia |
2,400 |
2,540 |
5.8% |
|
Brazil |
4,500 |
1,800 |
-60.0% |
|
Others |
3,600 |
3,600 |
0.0% |
|
Total |
323,491 |
301,919 |
-6.7% |
|
COMENUEZ, USDA, South African Pecan Nut Producers Association, Argentine Pecan Committee, Brazilian Associations of Nuts and Dried Fruits, and other INC sources |
|||
|
Global pecan production, kernel basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Mexico |
70,925 |
66,100 |
-6.8% |
|
USA |
69,600 |
61,400 |
-11.8% |
|
South Africa |
11,500 |
18,750 |
63.0% |
|
China |
3,000 |
1,750 |
-41.7% |
|
Argentina |
1,500 |
1,500 |
0.0% |
|
Australia |
1,250 |
1,321 |
5.7% |
|
Brazil |
2,200 |
800 |
-67.6% |
|
Others |
1,800 |
1,900 |
5.6% |
|
Total |
161,775 |
153,421 |
-5.2% |
|
COMENUEZ, USDA, South African Pecan Nut Producers Association, Argentine Pecan Committee, Brazilian Associations of Nuts and Dried Fruits, and other INC sources |
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