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Prospects seem encouraging

June 29, 2017 at 10:48 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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So far in the year walnut trees have fared well. Carry-over will be literally zero, which will influence prices at the beginning of the upcoming harvest. No one is covered!

Favorable summer weather is key for a prosperous harvest. Last year, unexpected frosts, heavy and continuous rains during the blossoming period of the trees uncompromisingly damaged the kernel in the majority of regions throughout the country. Only a few regions were spared. Overall, season 2016-17 was a disaster.

Hopes are for a strong upcoming harvest

SOFIA. It is too early to bet on the future output, but farmers expect a strong year. Trees are full of walnuts while only small areas in the high regions of the country were hit by frosts.

Carry-over 2015-16 was high - estimated at about 500,000 mt; and, after the weak harvest of 2016-17, it managed to cover the short positions on the market at the beginning of the marketing season, although not for long. Year 2016-17 was the year when supplied, of locally grown walnuts, failed not only international demand, but most importantly domestic demand, as well. Local farmers too early started importing from Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Poland to preserve their domestic and foreign market positions.

Prices are expected to start higher

However, carry-over 2016-17 will be literally zero. Carry-overs manage to narrow the initial gaps between early demands and belated supplies of a crop, but this year neither buyers nor sellers could rely on it. Under such circumstances, ceteris paribus, prices will inevitably start higher at the beginning of the new marketing season.

Currently, domestically grown organic kernels are impossible to find on the market while their conventional counterparts are supplied in meager quantities. Some farmers called the end of the season in February 2017; others never opened it; a few are still holding the fort, supplying meager quantities on the local market, but not for long. Prices are nominal.

Organic walnuts, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

light kernels (mix)

8,35

light halves

9,00

light quarters

7,90

light brokens

6,90

amber kernels (mix)

7,36

amber halves

8,00

amber quarters

6,90

amber brokens

6,00

walnut paste

11,45

in shell

3,00

EXW Bulgaria
   

Walnuts, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

light kernels (mix)

7,35

light halves

7,95

light quarters

6,95

light brokens

5,90

amber kernels (mix)

5,45

amber halves

5,45

amber quarters

5,45

amber brokens

5,45

walnut paste

7,80

in shell

2,00

EXW Bulgaria

 

 

 

 

 

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