Sesame Seeds: market Reversal and down due to new arrival of Crop 2017-18

Sesame Seeds Market Report:

Nigeria

Exchange rate is stable. Market is down little. New crop started slowly and expected to arrive full fledge in the month of September and October as per the survey done there is good crop this year if any unforeseen circumstances not take place. Crop will be better than last year. Sowing report shows that it is more by 15% in comparison to the last year. As over all local market sentiments week as new crop offered in forward and it is going to be down. No Demand from China at higher prices. At present china crop is also in the market, china is buying small quantities. No demand from Turkey and other countries, all are waiting for new crop arrival in full swing. 

TOGO/MALI/Burkina:

Prices are down little in the local market. Exchange rate is also down. Yet there are three months to go for the new crop. China is not buying at higher prices. Since last few days china is not in buying. New offer will start in October- November. Market will move ups and down according the market situation in Nigeria and prices of Nigeria.

Ethiopia: 

ECEX Prices are stable and little down. Ethiopia sellers are desperate to sale. As Nigeria started offering at lower prices in forward business, Ethiopia prices also started going down. No demand from china at higher level. Today Ethiopia Humera cargo is offered at lower by US$20 to 30 per mt. but no buyers at this level.  People are waiting for price to go down by another $40 to 50 dollars. US$1050 is the level where chines buyer can buy from Ethiopia. There are rumors and news that there is flood in Nile River, it may affect the new crop sowing, and how much it will effect to market sentiments, that only time will say.

Sudan:

Exchange is stable. Sudan offered prices are down. The down trend is only because of no demand from china and other countries at higher prices. Stock level is very lower in the local market. There are rumors and news that there is flood in Nile River, it may affect the new crop sowing, and how much it will effect to market sentiments, that only time will say.

Somalia:

Local market is down due to no demand from India and other countries. New small crop will arrive in the month of September-October.

Bangladesh:

Local market is down. China has stopped buying at higher prices. Demand comes at lower prices and not higher prices as the use of Bangladesh sesame is only for Oil making only. But local market is not that much down as per the international prices. So market is stable and little down.

Tanzania/Mozambique:

Season has got over in Tanzania and Mozambique. Market is down in the local market. Prices are going down. Not much cargo left in the local market with farmers. Major cargo reaches to the Shippers/Exporter and stockiest hand and they are offering to china market as per international prices. Demand has gone down and due to that market is going down and week.

Indian:

Exchange rate is stable vs. Dollar.  Local market is down today as higher prices demand is getting less. Local demand is less in the market. As dollar prices of Indian sesame is higher than international prices , only demand for hulled sesame and  demand stops for natural sesame seeds. Over all oil market is down in India.

Report on China:

Local market prices are stable and little down. China market going down due to lower prices offered from Nigeria.

The reasons for sesame market to go up and down: 

1. Local arrival will start in full swing.
2. International Prices are coming down due to no offers from Nigeria at lower prices.
3. New crop of 2017-18 has started from China and Nigeria and now conntinious all countries crops are going to arrive.
4. Up to December, there is no new arrival except local crop in China. New crop started in Nigeria but that will arrive in china in December.
5. there is enought stock at port level if the stock level goes higher then prices will go down and if level decrease then prices will go up.

Personal Views:

According to personal views Indian Prices should be stable and down. International prices will go down. If Nigerian shippers speculate the market and starts offering lower prices, market will go down further below US$1000 to level soon in next 10 days.