Walnuts: Cheap prices fail to revive demand
January 15, 2019 at 11:32 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Considerable declines in Europe
As total of 174,404 mt of Californian walnuts have been shipped since the beginning of the season. Although December shipments have increased significantly over November, the total export volume has declined by 2% since last year. Shipments to the US range at 38,693 mt (+2%), whereas overseas exports have dropped to 135,711 mt (-4%).
Buyers in Europe have imported 46,705 mt from the US this season so far. Shipments to Spain and Italy, two of the most important buyers, have even risen to 11,652 mt (+5%) and 19,586 mt (+1%) respectively. At the same time, imports to Germany dropped to 9,723 mt between September and December 2018, down 39% since last year. Other main export destinations such as China/Hong Kong (-60% to 3,529 mt) and India (-36% to 4,818 mt) also imported far less than usual. By contrast, exports to Turkey have risen by 2% to 27,028 mt. In order to reach a similar end-of-season stock level as in 2017/18, around 42,600 mt of walnuts would have to be shipped in the remaining eight months of the season.
|
US walnut exports in mt |
|||
|
Region |
2017/18 |
2018/19 |
Diff. |
|
Europe |
52,746 |
46,705 |
-11% |
|
Asia/Oceania |
38,990 |
25,572 |
-34% |
|
Africa/Middle East |
43,786 |
57,938 |
32% |
|
Central/South America |
94 |
30 |
-68% |
|
North America |
41,833 |
42,684 |
2% |
|
Others |
1,172 |
1,475 |
26% |
|
Total |
178,621 |
174,404 |
-2% |
|
California Walnut Board |
|||
Unclear sales figures
As of 31.12.2018, as much as 607,694 mt of in shells were registered on the US market. The crop is already almost 40,000 mt larger than in 2017. Total production is estimated at 626,000 mt.
Surprisingly, exports have declined despite lager supplies and lower prices. It is not officially known how much of this season’s production is already tied up in contracts. Many small and medium-sized suppliers, however, report that they are operating at full capacity. In how far these statements also apply to the large suppliers can only be measured as based on shipments over the next few months.
In Chile the harvest will begin in February and the first shipments will be available in April. This should increase the pressure on California. The high December export figures for US in shells gave a nominal lift to prices.
|
Walnut prices, FCA USA |
||
|
Type |
USD/lb |
EUR/kg |
|
Domestic LHP |
2.35-2.50 |
4.52-4.81 |
|
Export 20% LHP |
2.50-2.65 |
4.81-5.10 |
|
CHP |
2.20-2.30 |
4.23-4.42 |
|
Chandler, Halves |
2.70-2.80 |
5.19-5.39 |
|
Jumbo, Chandler, in shell |
1.06-1.12 |
2.04-2.15 |
|
Trade sources |
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