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Walnuts: China expects an production increase of 27%

May 18, 2022 4:09 PM, Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO/DUBAI. A noticeable crop increase in China means that global walnut production is expected to be around 17% higher than last year and yields are also expected to increase in other main growing countries. Meanwhile, US exports in April were again above this season's average.

Global crop to increase by 17%

Global walnut production in 2022/2023 is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year. Last week, the 39th World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress was held in Dubai, where, among other things, the expectations for the coming walnut season were published. A total of around 2.655 million mt of inshell walnuts are expected to be harvested in 2022/2023, which would mean a year-on-year increase of 17%. The main reason for the rise in production is the expected 27% rise in the Chinese walnut crop to 1.4 million mt. Many other growing countries should also be able to achieve higher results, including the top producing countries USA (+4% to 680,395 mt) and Chile (+11% to 170,000 mt). Ukraine is also forecast to increase its crop by 15% to almost 100,000 mt, but it remains to be seen how the situation will develop in the coming months.

Inshell walnut production, in mt

Country

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

China

1,100,000

1,400,000

27.3%

USA

653,320

680,395

4.1%

Chile

153,760

170,000

10.6%

Ukraine

85,000

98,000

15.3%

Turkey

37,200

48,000

29.0%

Iran

31,000

46,500

50.0%

France

37,000

37,000

0.0%

Romania

28,000

30,000

7.1%

India

37,000

31,000

-16.2%

Argentina

21,500

22,500

4.7%

Moldova

18,000

20,300

12.8%

Italy

15,850

19,500

23.0%

Hungary

13,500

13,500

0.0%

Australia

12,500

14,000

12.0%

Georgia

7,100

8,200

15.5%

Others

15,000

16,500

10.0%

Total

2,265,730

2,655,395

17.2%

INC, May 2022

Successful April shipments

Meanwhile, US walnut exports are picking up noticeably. After the strong export performance in March, April also presented an excellent export result for this season. Exports amounted to 26,399 mt, an increase of 50% compared to the same month last year. At the same time, domestic shipments fell by 20% to 7,371 mt. Nevertheless, 33,769 mt (+25%) of inshell and shelled walnuts were shipped domestically and overseas. This was due to moderate increases, such as shipments to Germany, which rose by 17% year-on-year to 4,138 mt, and above all exports to Turkey, which increased almost tenfold compared to April 2021 from 561 mt to 5,854 mt.

In total, however, walnut shipments are still 20% behind last year's result. Since the start of this season, 262,844 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts have been shipped domestically and internationally, 20% less than this time last year. While exports amount to 198,656 mt (-24% y-o-y), deliveries to the domestic market also declined by 9% to 64,188 mt.

US walnut shipments, in mt

Destination

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Europe

82,087

82,829

1%

North America

77,644

70,150

-10%

Africa/Middle East

102,748

65,217

-37%

Asia/Oceania

63,940

41,809

-35%

Central/South America

180

150

-17%

Others

3,707

2,688

-27%

Total

330,306

262,844

-20%

California Walnuts; since the start of the season

Mixed spot market prices

US walnuts of the Chandler variety, LHP 20% are currently offered on the European spot market at a level of EUR 5.80/kg FCA Spain. In addition, there are more offers of Ukrainian goods, as many traders want to sell their stocks.

Walnuts

Type

EUR/kg

Chandler, LHP 20%, USA

5.80

Chandler, LHP 80%, USA

7.15

Type 185, shelled, ELHP 90%, China

6.20

XIN2, Inshell, +32 mm, China

2.75

LHP, Ukraine

6.50-6.80

LHP 30%, Ukraine

5.85

Chandler, ELHP 80%, Chile

7.75

Chandler, ELHP 40%, Chile

7.25

FCA Spain

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