Walnuts: clear win for China in EU
June 25, 2026 at 9:49 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Shift in EU import flows in 2025
Fact is that EU walnut imports have climbed in the past ten years surging to a record 196,905 mt worth EUR 1.037 billion (USD 1.18 billion) in 2025. Of this amount as much as 144,756 mt worth EUR 881 million (USD 1.0 billion) were shelled walnuts. While the USA are the most important trading partner for the EU by far in terms of volume, a noted shift took place in 2025 with China emerging as second most important supplier.
USA
In the past ten-and-a-half years the USA held a comfortable market share of 51% with the highest recorded at 60% in calendar year 2016 and the lowest at 42% in 2025. US in-shell output was projected to range 9% lower than last year at 669,500 mt in 2026/2027 at this year’s Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress as nut broker Cardassilaris reports.
Yet, well supplies may sit a bit lower in California, the EU Parliament passed legislation implementing a 500,000 mt tariff rate quota for US tree nuts alongside a 0% customs duty for several US dried fruits on 16 June as the INC reports. Although particulars are still missing as to how the quota will be administered, when exactly importers can start using the preferential tariffs and companies will need to keep an eye out for safeguards as well as the fact that tariff preferences will expire on 31 December 2029, unless extended, the framework should have a stabilising effect with more predictable rules and may help to lift US shipments to the EU again.
|
EU walnut imports from the USA |
||
|
Year |
mt |
Share |
|
2015 |
29,706 |
50.1% |
|
2016 |
40,313 |
60.0% |
|
2017 |
39,299 |
50.5% |
|
2018 |
40,757 |
48.7% |
|
2019 |
42,957 |
47.4% |
|
2020 |
45,821 |
48.1% |
|
2021 |
50,923 |
48.6% |
|
2022 |
61,282 |
54.9% |
|
2023 |
52,827 |
54.8% |
|
2024 |
69,969 |
56.8% |
|
2025 |
60,238 |
41.6% |
|
2026* |
43,038 |
56.2% |
|
Total |
577,130 |
51.0% |
|
DG TAXUD Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-31/12, *01/01/26-21/06/26 |
||
Chile
Judging by Chile’s market shares in the past years, the country has also established itself as a reliable partner. The average market share sits at a comfortable 18% with the lowest of 14% recorded in 2026 and the highest of 21% in 2023%. Although Chile’s market share has only reached 6% this year so far, this should change as soon as the 2026 crop will start to arrive in the next few weeks.
Growers have wrapped up this year harvest with INC projections at 165,000 mt, around 6% lower than last year’s 175,000 mt. Media reports covering ChileNut’s second Field Day 2026, however, highlight that the quality is competitive, which is important given that output is higher in the US and in China.
|
EU walnut imports from Chile |
||
|
Year |
mt |
Share |
|
2015 |
9,984 |
16.8% |
|
2016 |
9,213 |
13.7% |
|
2017 |
15,744 |
20.2% |
|
2018 |
15,559 |
18.6% |
|
2019 |
18,741 |
20.7% |
|
2020 |
19,224 |
20.2% |
|
2021 |
21,299 |
20.3% |
|
2022 |
21,254 |
19.1% |
|
2023 |
20,018 |
20.8% |
|
2024 |
20,765 |
16.9% |
|
2025 |
28,284 |
19.5% |
|
2026* |
4,461 |
5.8% |
|
Total |
204,546 |
18.1% |
|
DG TAXUD Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-31/12, *01/01/26-21/06/26 |
||
Ukraine
Ukraine’s market share has also been relatively firm in the past ten-and-a-half years. Yet, 2016 marks an exception as shipments fell to a low 9%. By contrast, the market share reached an 18%-high in 2021. The average market share sits at 14%.
|
EU walnut imports from Ukraine |
||
|
Year |
mt |
Share |
|
2015 |
8,406 |
14.2% |
|
2016 |
6,150 |
9.2% |
|
2017 |
9,313 |
12.0% |
|
2018 |
11,976 |
14.3% |
|
2019 |
15,302 |
16.9% |
|
2020 |
15,203 |
16.0% |
|
2021 |
19,075 |
18.2% |
|
2022 |
14,339 |
12.9% |
|
2023 |
12,819 |
13.3% |
|
2024 |
17,907 |
14.5% |
|
2025 |
18,414 |
12.7% |
|
2026* |
6,475 |
8.5% |
|
Total |
155,379 |
13.7% |
|
DG TAXUD Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-31/12, *01/01/26-21/06/26 |
||
China
China’s share in Europe has clearly grown. While the country only held a 1% market share in 2015, this figure surged to 20% in 2025, when China also replaced Chile in second place. The country’s average import share in the EU stands at 8%. According to INC estimates issued in March the country is the leading producing country with output standing at 1.5 million mt in 2025/2026. As Chelmer Foods reports it is still too early for an accurate crop estimate ths year. Yet, conditions have been good so far with favourable weather conditions and a healthy crop development.
At the INC congress in May, it emerged that China exported 203,283 mt of in-shell walnuts and 164,186 mt of shelled walnuts in the calendar year of 2025. Anticipation is that China’s share will continue to grow in the export market.
|
EU walnut imports from China |
||
|
Year |
mt |
Share |
|
2015 |
522 |
0.9% |
|
2016 |
248 |
0.4% |
|
2017 |
1,685 |
2.2% |
|
2018 |
2,966 |
3.5% |
|
2019 |
1,778 |
2.0% |
|
2020 |
4,674 |
4.9% |
|
2021 |
6,494 |
6.2% |
|
2022 |
8,100 |
7.3% |
|
2023 |
5,160 |
5.4% |
|
2024 |
8,202 |
6.7% |
|
2025 |
28,691 |
19.8% |
|
2026* |
19,797 |
25.9% |
|
Total |
88,317 |
7.8% |
|
DG TAXUD Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-31/12, *01/01/26-21/06/26 |
||
Moldova
Imports from Moldova have pursued an opposing trend to China. While market shares still exceeded 10% in 2015-2019, they remained at single-digit figures in the 2020s and fell to a 3%-low in 2025.The average market share is 7%.
|
EU walnut imports from Moldova |
||
|
Year |
mt |
Share |
|
2015 |
9,072 |
15.3% |
|
2016 |
9,414 |
14.0% |
|
2017 |
9,503 |
12.2% |
|
2018 |
9,738 |
11.6% |
|
2019 |
10,013 |
11.0% |
|
2020 |
8,009 |
8.4% |
|
2021 |
4,517 |
4.3% |
|
2022 |
3,297 |
3.0% |
|
2023 |
3,656 |
3.8% |
|
2024 |
4,008 |
3.3% |
|
2025 |
3,690 |
2.5% |
|
2026* |
1,712 |
2.2% |
|
Total |
76,629 |
6.8% |
|
DG TAXUD Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-31/12, *01/01/26-21/06/26 |
||
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