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Walnuts: Contradicting production estimates for 2018/19

October 5, 2018 at 11:01 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SOFIA. According to official estimates, this year's walnut exports from the Ukraine have significantly increased over the first seven months in 2017.

 

Up or down?
According to the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, walnuts worth USD 67.1 million have been exported between January and July 2018. At 643 mt, deliveries to Germany in this period were also a whole 504% higher than last year. According to the USDA Gain Report, the export potential for the 2017/18 season is expected to total 78,640 mt, up by 43% compared to 2016/17. In the new 2018/19 season, the export volume is expected to be up by another 15% at 90,700 mt.

Different sources are, however, estimating production differently. According to the USDA, at 132,500 mt, walnut production in 2018/19 will be around 22% higher than in 2017/18 (108,660 mt). Contrary to this, the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) puts production at 113,300 mt in 2018/19, while 132,250 mt of in shells are said to have been produced last year.

In 2017, three quarters of the acreage in the Ukraine was reportedly in the hands of small family-run businesses, many of which do not declare their supplies to official bodies, making accurate production estimates almost impossible.

Walnuts in shell, Ukraine (in mt)

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

Production

107,990

108,660

132,300

Imports

109

217

40

Exports

55,076

78,640

90,700

Domestic consumption

41,000

41,500

42,000

Source: FAS/USDA Gain Report: New Post

Overview of offers
Traders are offering walnut kernels, 30% light halves from 5.12 EUR/kg EXW Poland, while light walnut pieces from the Ukraine are available from 6.65 EUR/kg EXW Germany. Chilean walnuts are being offered at 6.51 EUR/kg DDP Germany.

Walnut kernel prices (2017 crop)

Product

EUR/kg

30% light halves, EXW Poland

5.12

Broken, light, EXW Germany

6.65

Broken, light, DDP Germany

6.51

Trade sources

 

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