Walnuts: encouraging objective estimate
September 10, 2025 at 11:47 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
US production to rise by 18%
Although bearing acres are projected 1% lower at 365,000 acres, expectation is that production will rise by 18% to 710,000 US tons. Yields are the driver as they should range 20% higher at 1.95 US tons per acre. Production will, however, still be a far cry from the bumper crop of 828,000 US tons witnessed in 2023. The figures are based on a survey of 1,512 trees sampled on 756 orchards between 22 July and 22 August 2025.
As the survey history included in the report shows the September forecast aligned relatively close to the final production figures until 2020. This has, however, changed in recent years as large discrepancies have crept in. In 2021-2023 the September forecast ranged much lower than the final production and in 2024 much higher.
|
California walnuts, inshell |
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|
Acreage and production |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
Bearing acres |
370,000 |
365,000 |
-1.4% |
|
Trees per acre |
81.0 |
81.0 |
0.0% |
|
Per bearing acre/US ton |
1.63 |
1.95 |
19.6% |
|
Total production (US ton) |
603,000 |
710,000 |
17.7% |
|
USDA NASS 2025 California Walnut Objective Measurement Report |
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Improved prospects for 2025/2026
Optimism prevails in the industry over the fact that production will bounce back this year with more supplies available for shipments in 2025/2026. In addition, the mild summer weather should boost quality. Harvesting of early varieties already starts in September and runs through until the start of November. As the California Walnut Board, however, highlights, unsold carry-in supplies are one of the lowest on record. These volumes will be shipped in September and October before the new crop is ready to be exported.
Final walnut receipts for 2024/2025 amount to 591,856 US tons of conventional walnuts and 14,807 US tons of organic walnuts as the August Shipment Report issued by the California Walnut Board shows. At 21,117 pounds monthly kernel shipments ranged 33% lower than the 31,437 pounds shipped in August 2024. By contrast, inshell shipments surged by 62% from 1,705 pounds in August 2024 to 2,769 pounds in August 2025.
Kernel shipments 23% down
Kernel shipments finished the season 23% lower than last year at 459 million pounds as compared with 2023/2024. Exports declined by 19% and domestic shipments by 23%. Germany not only maintained its position as leading export destination for US walnuts in 2024/2025 but exports to here also witnessed a 2% rise. By contrast, exports to nearly all other destinations within the top ten showed a downturn with the noted exception of Italy to where shipments rose by 27%. Japan also remained the second most important export destination, despite shipments taking an 8% dip, followed by South Korea with a 12% decline.
|
US walnut shipments, kernels (1,000 pounds) |
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|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA domestic |
259,842 |
187,145 |
-28.0% |
|
Germany |
68,669 |
69,794 |
1.6% |
|
Japan |
38,151 |
35,203 |
-7.7% |
|
Korea |
35,151 |
30,860 |
-12.2% |
|
Spain |
34,545 |
30,286 |
-12.3% |
|
UK |
22,846 |
18,549 |
-18.8% |
|
Netherlands |
24,405 |
16,827 |
-31.1% |
|
Canada |
15,518 |
14,618 |
-5.8% |
|
Israel |
11,656 |
7,779 |
-33.3% |
|
Italy |
10,140 |
7,377 |
27.3% |
|
Australia |
11,296 |
6,997 |
-38.1% |
|
Others |
61,347 |
33,409 |
-43.5% |
|
Export Total |
333,724 |
271,699 |
-18.6% |
|
Grand Total |
593,566 |
458,844 |
-22.7% |
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California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/08 |
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Inshell shipments slump by 53%
Inshell shipments witnessed a much sharper decline of 53%. Exports thereby slumped by 54% and domestic shipments by 42%. Shipments to Turkey as leading export destination fell by a stunning 73%. Exports to Italy also dropped by 20%. By contrast, shipments to India rose by 32%. In recent years a spotlight has been cast on the country as emerging market for walnuts. Issue is that a health-conscious middle class is on the rise.
Yet ,a report recently issued by Greater Kashmir also highlights the downsides for local producers, who are struggling to compete with cheap imports from California, Chile and China. Prices are falling and a 5% Goods and Service Tax is making life harder. While the processing industry prefers imported nuts because of their uniform size and lighter shells, Kashmiri growers emphasise that their nuts are grown entirely organic, which gives them a superior taste and quality. The union territory of Jammu and Kashmir accounts for as much as 95% of India's walnut production.
|
US walnut shipments, inshell (1,000 pounds) |
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|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Turkey |
126,996 |
34,703 |
-72.7% |
|
Italy |
41,655 |
33,418 |
-19.8% |
|
India |
24,767 |
32,653 |
31.8% |
|
Germany |
9,622 |
12,159 |
26.4% |
|
USA domestic |
18,616 |
10,772 |
-42.1% |
|
Spain |
12,110 |
10,080 |
-16.8% |
|
UAE |
30,140 |
4,182 |
-86.1% |
|
Vietnam |
3,486 |
2,488 |
-28.6% |
|
Lebanon |
11,121 |
2,263 |
-79.7% |
|
Netherlands |
1,716 |
1,888 |
10.0% |
|
Egypt |
3,133 |
1,455 |
-53.6% |
|
Others |
48,593 |
8,782 |
-81.9% |
|
Export Total |
313,339 |
144,071 |
-54.0% |
|
Grand Total |
331,955 |
154,842 |
-53.4% |
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California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/08 |
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