Walnuts: new estimates
March 11, 2026 at 11:16 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Crop decline in Chile
During the first Field Day ChileNut issued an estimate for this year’s crop as Reporte agricola reports. Chile holds a competitive advantage as the new export season will start on 21 March, whereas China and the USA as leading global producers are located in the Northern Hemisphere, where the season starts in September. Current projection is that around 165,000 mt will be harvested in Chile this year. Judging by the revised estimate of 175,000 mt issued by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) for 2025/2026, this would mean a 6% decline in production. In November the INC crop estimate still stood at 168,200 mt.
Revised production estimates
On top of this, the INC has revised several estimates with global in-shell walnut production now standing 8% higher than last year at 2.8 million mt. November’s estimate stood at 2.7 million mt. At 2.9 million mt the total in-shell supply estimate ranges 11% higher than last year’s 2.8 million mt. Kernel output has also risen by 8% from 1.1 million mt in 2024/2025 to 1.2 million mt in 2025/2025 and global kernel supplies by 6% from 1.2 million mt in 2024/2025 to 1.3 million mt in 2025/2026. Besides Chile, the INC has also lifted the production estimates for the USA and Turkey, whereas the estimates for Ukraine, Spain and Italy as well as Portugal have been reduced.
|
Global walnut production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,550,000 |
1,500,000 |
-3.2% |
|
USA |
547,000 |
732,400 |
33.9% |
|
Chile |
134,600 |
175,000 |
30.0% |
|
Ukraine |
88,800 |
89,700 |
1.0% |
|
Romania |
40,000 |
53,000 |
32.5% |
|
Turkey |
48,000 |
52,500 |
9.4% |
|
Iran |
35,000 |
38,700 |
10.6% |
|
France |
25,000 |
35,000 |
40.0% |
|
India |
33,000 |
30,000 |
-9.1% |
|
Argentina |
21,000 |
22,000 |
4.8% |
|
Spain |
13,000 |
17,000 |
30.8% |
|
Moldova |
17,700 |
18,400 |
4.0% |
|
Italy |
14,900 |
16,000 |
7.4% |
|
Portugal |
11,100 |
12,000 |
8.1% |
|
Hungary |
14,000 |
11,900 |
-15.0% |
|
Others |
26,000 |
25,500 |
-2.0% |
|
Total |
2,619,100 |
2,829,100 |
8.0% |
|
California Walnut Board and Commission, Chilenut, Walnut Growers Association of Türkiye, Portugal Nuts, and other INC sources |
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Iran war is quite a challenge
The crisis in the Middle East presents a challenge for the entire industry. Shipments are still halted in the important Strait of Hormuz as several news outlets report. This will have a lasting impact on transportation and insurance costs. Container availability will also be affected in the long run. Problem for China and the USA is also that the Middle East is an important sales market. According to the most recent shipment figures issued by the California Walnut Board US shipments of shelled walnuts have tripled to the Middle East and Africa this season with the region accounting for a stunning 58% of the total volume exported between September 2025 and January 2026.
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