Nuts

Walnuts: a mixed bag

May 14, 2024 at 10:43 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

REUS/FOLSOM. Current production estimates presented at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in Vancouver display shifting dynamics for walnuts in 2024/2025. US shipments are very strong this season as the April report issued by the California Walnut Board shows.

Buyers to look out for price changes

Although global production and supplies are expected to range higher in 2024/2025, suppliers are urging buyers to look out for changing dynamics that will impact pricing. Expectation is that global production will rise slightly by 2% to 2.7 million mt and global supplies by 8% to 2.9 million mt. Yet, output is a mixed bag throughout the different producing countries. Leading producer China will gain market shares as production is projected to rise by 11% to 1.5 million mt. Contrary to this, output will range 10% lower in the US and slump by 26% in Chile, which was confronted with a difficult harvest due to adverse weather conditions.

Buyers in Europe may profit from encouraging production prospects on the continent. Ukraine’s production should rebound by 12%, but only if no war-related disruptions occur. This has the potential to compensate for the anticipated 8% production decline in Turkey, where importers may however step up buying. Romania, France, Moldova and Italy should also see double-digit production increases in 2024/2025, which will add to supplies in Europe. Argentina has, in addition, witnessed a 25% surge in production and output has more than doubled in Australia.

Global walnut production (in mt)

Country

2023/24

2024/25

Diff.

China

1,350,000

1,500,000

11.1%

USA

747,000

671,000

-10.2%

Chile

181,648

134,576

-26.0%

Ukraine

78,000

87,300

11.9%

Turkey

65,000

60,000

-7.7%

Romania

34,500

40,000

15.9%

France

28,000

38,000

35.7%

Iran

40,000

35,000

-12.5%

India

35,000

33,000

-5.8%

Argentina

20,000

25,000

25.0%

Moldova

18,100

20,800

14.9%

Italy

12,850

18,500

44.0%

Hungary

14,000

14,000

0.0%

Australia

7,000

14,000

100.0%

Georgia

8,000

6,400

-20.0%

Others

15,000

10,000

-33.4%

Total

2,654,098

2,707,576

2.0%

INC May 2024, in-shell basis

Strong US exports

April marked another strong month for US walnut shipments, which are performing really well this season. Accumulated shipments of conventional shelled and inshell walnuts have, in fact, risen by 27% to 736 million pounds between September 2023 and April 2024 as compared with the same period in 2022/2023. Domestic shipments have thereby climbed by 19% to 193 million pounds and exports by 30% to 534 million pounds. Turkey is the main export destination by far, followed by Germany, Italy and Spain. The United Arab Emirates and the UK are the only two top ten export destinations to which shipments have slumped by 30% and 80% respectively. Final crop receipts stand at 805,035 tons for conventional walnuts and at 18,514 tons for organic walnuts.

US walnut shipments, inshell and shelled (in 1,000 pounds)

Destination

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

USA

162,376

192,896

18.8%

Turkey

811,72

199,700

47.5%

Germany

47,724

64,479

38.0%

Italy

28,216

47,338

67.8%

Spain

26,834

39,185

46.0%

UAE

50,526

35,188

-30.4%

Korea

22,882

28,094

22.8%

Japan

26,285

27,339

4.0%

India

9,908

24,968

152.0%

Netherlands

15,354

19,998

30.2%

UK

68,420

14,032

-79.5%

Others

39,808

122,814

208.5%

Total

578,505

736,031

27.2%

California Walnut Board, 01/09-30/04

 

View more
price charts for nuts, dried fruit and oilseeds and more

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
May 24, 2024
MADRID. Exports have picked up for almonds in Spain. Crop estimates for 2024/2025 have emerged. Prices are a troublesome matter.
Nuts
May 23, 2024
MADRID/SACRAMENTO. Urgent calls for permission to treat organic crops with pesticides in areas affected by extreme drought in Spain contradict assertions that quality is more important than quantity for almonds. Pricing is also an issue in California, but for quite different reasons.
Nuts
May 22, 2024
NEW DELHI/BUENOS AIRES. India has started exporting the summer crop and international buyers can secure attractive offers here. In North and South America, the situation is partially very tense, which is mainly due to the shortage of goods.
Nuts
May 21, 2024
REUS. South Africa is boasting a 35% uprise in pecan kernel output for 2024/2025. Judging by the historical average US production will flatline. Brazil will experience a production decline.