Walnuts: a mixed bag
May 14, 2024 at 10:43 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Buyers to look out for price changes
Although global production and supplies are expected to range higher in 2024/2025, suppliers are urging buyers to look out for changing dynamics that will impact pricing. Expectation is that global production will rise slightly by 2% to 2.7 million mt and global supplies by 8% to 2.9 million mt. Yet, output is a mixed bag throughout the different producing countries. Leading producer China will gain market shares as production is projected to rise by 11% to 1.5 million mt. Contrary to this, output will range 10% lower in the US and slump by 26% in Chile, which was confronted with a difficult harvest due to adverse weather conditions.
Buyers in Europe may profit from encouraging production prospects on the continent. Ukraine’s production should rebound by 12%, but only if no war-related disruptions occur. This has the potential to compensate for the anticipated 8% production decline in Turkey, where importers may however step up buying. Romania, France, Moldova and Italy should also see double-digit production increases in 2024/2025, which will add to supplies in Europe. Argentina has, in addition, witnessed a 25% surge in production and output has more than doubled in Australia.
|
Global walnut production (in mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,350,000 |
1,500,000 |
11.1% |
|
USA |
747,000 |
671,000 |
-10.2% |
|
Chile |
181,648 |
134,576 |
-26.0% |
|
Ukraine |
78,000 |
87,300 |
11.9% |
|
Turkey |
65,000 |
60,000 |
-7.7% |
|
Romania |
34,500 |
40,000 |
15.9% |
|
France |
28,000 |
38,000 |
35.7% |
|
Iran |
40,000 |
35,000 |
-12.5% |
|
India |
35,000 |
33,000 |
-5.8% |
|
Argentina |
20,000 |
25,000 |
25.0% |
|
Moldova |
18,100 |
20,800 |
14.9% |
|
Italy |
12,850 |
18,500 |
44.0% |
|
Hungary |
14,000 |
14,000 |
0.0% |
|
Australia |
7,000 |
14,000 |
100.0% |
|
Georgia |
8,000 |
6,400 |
-20.0% |
|
Others |
15,000 |
10,000 |
-33.4% |
|
Total |
2,654,098 |
2,707,576 |
2.0% |
|
INC May 2024, in-shell basis |
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Strong US exports
April marked another strong month for US walnut shipments, which are performing really well this season. Accumulated shipments of conventional shelled and inshell walnuts have, in fact, risen by 27% to 736 million pounds between September 2023 and April 2024 as compared with the same period in 2022/2023. Domestic shipments have thereby climbed by 19% to 193 million pounds and exports by 30% to 534 million pounds. Turkey is the main export destination by far, followed by Germany, Italy and Spain. The United Arab Emirates and the UK are the only two top ten export destinations to which shipments have slumped by 30% and 80% respectively. Final crop receipts stand at 805,035 tons for conventional walnuts and at 18,514 tons for organic walnuts.
|
US walnut shipments, inshell and shelled (in 1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
162,376 |
192,896 |
18.8% |
|
Turkey |
811,72 |
199,700 |
47.5% |
|
Germany |
47,724 |
64,479 |
38.0% |
|
Italy |
28,216 |
47,338 |
67.8% |
|
Spain |
26,834 |
39,185 |
46.0% |
|
UAE |
50,526 |
35,188 |
-30.4% |
|
Korea |
22,882 |
28,094 |
22.8% |
|
Japan |
26,285 |
27,339 |
4.0% |
|
India |
9,908 |
24,968 |
152.0% |
|
Netherlands |
15,354 |
19,998 |
30.2% |
|
UK |
68,420 |
14,032 |
-79.5% |
|
Others |
39,808 |
122,814 |
208.5% |
|
Total |
578,505 |
736,031 |
27.2% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-30/04 |
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