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Walnuts: Production drops by 10%

October 16, 2018 at 9:13 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Although the US is expecting a bumper crop in 2018/19, the potential for growth is anything but exhausted. In addition, the USDA records considerable shifts in the different export markets.

 

New records are very well possible
This year’s US walnut production is estimated at 626,000 mt — a new record, according to the US Department of Agriculture. At 350,000 acres of crop-bearing walnut trees, acreage is the largest ever seen. There are also an additional 65,000 acres of trees that are not currently crop-bearing, which should further increase yields over the next few years.

This year, the crop will be available on the market later than expected. By 30 September, a total of 85,593 mt of US walnuts were harvested. This is around 10% less than at this time last year (92,985). 

Increasing export potential
This season, good production volumes are not only expected in the USA but also in China, Chile and Eastern Europe. This is pulling down the prices on the international market and renders the nuts affordable for import markets that lack purchasing power. Turkey, for instance, imported around 520 mt of walnuts from the US in the first month of 2018/19, which is only 16% less than in September 2017. In comparison, the exports of US almonds to Turkey have decreased by 78% over last year. 

US walnut exports in mt

Country

2017/18

2018/19

Diff.

Europe

1,517

1,816

20%

Asia/Oceania

1,365

986

-28%

Africa/Middle East

834

813

-2%

Central/South America

0

19

-

North America

7,954

8,030

1%

Others

45

101

123%

Total

11,715

11,765

0%

Since the beginning of the season

Export markets in comparison
A total of 11,765 mt of US walnuts were shipped within the US and internationally in September 2018, a similar amount as last year. Shipments within the domestic market range at 7,540 mt (+3%), whereas exports range lower at 4,207 mt (-4%).

The main buyers include Spain, with 894 mt (+141% vs. 2017), South Korea with 556 mt (+151%) and Turkey with 520 mt (-16%). At the same time, Germany (-63%, 181 mt), Australia (-68%, 74 mt), and China (-79%, 23 mt) have drastically reduced their imports of US walnuts in the first month of the new season. 

US walnut exports in mt

Country

2017/18

2018/19

Diff.

Spain

372

894

141%

South Korea

221

556

151%

Turkey

619

520

-16%

Canada

607

486

-20%

Italy

478

460

-4%

Germany

494

181

-63%

Belgium

19

114

500%

Australia

228

74

-68%

China

110

23

-79%

Vietnam

318

0

-100 %

Since the beginning of the season

Overview of offers
Traders are offering last season's crop of Ukrainian walnut kernels, 30% light halves from 5.12 EUR/kg EXW Poland, light walnut pieces from the Ukraine are available from 6.65 EUR/kg EXW Germany. Offers stand at 6.04 EUR/kg EXW Germany for Chilean walnuts.

Walnut kernel prices (2017 crop)

Product

EUR/kg

30% light halves, EXW Poland

5.12

Pieces, light, EXW Germany

6.65

Pieces, light, DDP Germany

6.04

Trade sources

 

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