Walnuts: promising new season
May 19, 2025 at 11:15 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Flat production in China
Global walnut production should turn upwards in 2025/2026. INC data shows a slight 6% rise as compared with 2024/2025. Global supplies will rise by a more nominal 4%, from 2.762 million mt in 2024/2025 to 2.866 million mt in 2025/2026.
Projections for China indicate an unchanged in-shell basis crop of 1.550 million mt. As stakeholders report the area planted will reach 2.87 million ha in the Yunnan Province and around 42,470 ha in the Xinjiang Province. Despite planting being on the rise, low fruiting rates should slow yield gains, which is why the country’s production will remain firm on the current season providing that weather conditions will be good. The weather will also prove decisive for quality while the nuts ripen and during harvest. On the upside it should be noted that kernel size and fullness should be better than last year meaning that small sizes will be less of an issue in the new season.
Rise in California and Chile
According to the California Walnut Board and Commission prospects are highly encouraging for this year’s crop. Water is not an issue at present, and temperatures have been ideal in spring so far with conditions ideal for a strong bloom period and early shoots. If favourable weather conditions prevail yields and quality should be good. Anticipation is that production will climb by 14% as compared with last year.
After witnessing a disastrous crop in 2024, the outlook for Chile is promising this year with production expected to bounce back by 25%. As media reports highlight suppliers may also profit from Trump’s tariff regime. Hope is that Mexico will turn to Chile as substitute for US almonds. Although much uncertainty prevails as to which direction future negotiations between the USA, Canada and Mexico will turn, walnuts and almonds are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) meaning that they are exempt from Trump’s 25% tariffs.
In addition, the US and China reached an agreement to reduce tariffs for a 90-day period last week. While the US has reduced the extra tariff of 145% applying for Chinese products since April to 30%, China has cut the 125% tariff for imports from the US to 10%.
|
Global walnut production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,550,000 |
1,550,000 |
0.0% |
|
USA |
542,700 |
616,000 |
13.5% |
|
Chile |
134,576 |
168,000 |
24.8% |
|
Ukraine |
88,750 |
100,800 |
13.6% |
|
Romania |
40,000 |
53,000 |
32.5% |
|
Turkey |
48,000 |
46,800 |
-2.5% |
|
France |
25,000 |
40,000 |
60.0% |
|
Iran |
35,000 |
38,700 |
10.6% |
|
India |
33,000 |
30,000 |
-9.1% |
|
Argentina |
21,000 |
22,000 |
4.8% |
|
Moldova |
17,680 |
21,000 |
18.8% |
|
Spain |
13,000 |
18,000 |
38.5% |
|
Italy |
14,900 |
15,000 |
0.7% |
|
Hungary |
14,000 |
11,900 |
-15.0% |
|
Australia |
14,000 |
11,000 |
21.4% |
|
Others |
23,100 |
24,500 |
6.1% |
|
Total |
2,614,706 |
2,766,700 |
5.8% |
|
California Walnut Board and Commission, Chilenut, Walnut Growers Association of Türkiye and other INC sources |
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