Walnuts: sandstorms in China
June 11, 2025 at 11:32 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Outlook for 2025/2026 in China
Suppliers in China are not only busy juggling with remaining inventories but also with drawing attention to the next crop. Some processors state that they are nearly sold out on raw nuts and that they can no longer offer the full range of walnut kernels. While the new season should provide relief and the production estimates for China stood firm at 1.55 million mt at the INC Congress, recent news is more unsettling.
Issue is that severe sandstorms have disrupted the pollination of the trees on which Xingfu nuts are grown. This variety has the largest share in China’s production and yields are expected to decline. Late spring frosts have also impacted the trees in China’s northern walnut regions. Not only are the starting prices for the 2025 crop expected to be firm but suppliers are also advising their customers to buy in advance as supplies will be limited and volatility is anticipated. Sales are currently going well in Chile, where the new crop is being shipped.
Chile’s exports finally kick in
Chile’s walnut exports are finally gaining traction this year. Monthly inshell exports reached 14,327 mt in May 2024, which is 16% up on the 12,373 mt registered in May 2024. Shelled walnuts exports even surged by 186% from 765 mt in May 2024 to 2,190 mt in May this year.
Total inshell exports stand 28% higher than last year at 17,122 mt. India has lost its position as leading export destination and presently ranks third as shipments have declined by 35%. Turkey now tops the chart with an 48% growth, followed by Italy with an even more impressive 85% uprise in shipments. The United Arab Emirates and Germany are also showing impressive triple-digit growth rates.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, inshell (kg) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
Turkey |
3,387,799 |
5,019,175 |
48.2% |
|
Italy |
1,625,870 |
3,015,092 |
85.4% |
|
India |
3,503,244 |
2,277,896 |
-35.0% |
|
UAE |
488,825 |
1,799,600 |
268.1% |
|
Spain |
1,057,433 |
1,303,210 |
23.2% |
|
Morocco |
1,838,350 |
893,700 |
-51.4% |
|
Germany |
99,000 |
691,600 |
598.6% |
|
Lithuania |
305,010 |
500,050 |
63.9% |
|
Peru |
365,000 |
334,000 |
-8.5% |
|
Vietnam |
0 |
243,000 |
- |
|
Others |
722,530 |
1,045,380 |
44.7% |
|
Total |
13,393,061 |
17,122,703 |
27.8% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-31/05 |
|||
Europe hungry for shelled walnuts
Chile’s total shelled walnut shipments have surged by an incredible 127% in the annual comparison. Main driver are countries in Europe. Exports to the region have more than tripled to 2,105 mt. Germany tops the chart with a seven-fold rise. Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are also sporting impressive gains. Even exports to Portugal have risen more than tenfold. Ecuador is the only country in amongst the top ten to where shipments have declined. Chile’s exports to America as a region have, in fact, declined by 14%.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, shelled (kg) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
Germany |
99,163 |
695,242 |
601.1% |
|
Spain |
175,054 |
453,719 |
159.2% |
|
Italy |
87,360 |
283,606 |
224.6% |
|
Netherlands |
100,044 |
261,506 |
161.4% |
|
France |
60,640 |
87,594 |
44.4% |
|
Ecuador |
175,646 |
85,064 |
-51.6% |
|
Brazil |
73,279 |
80,523 |
9.9% |
|
Belgium |
0 |
66,890 |
- |
|
UK |
34,120 |
66,000 |
93.4% |
|
Portugal |
3,000 |
42,000 |
1,300.0% |
|
Others |
316,092 |
433,193 |
37.0% |
|
Total |
1,124,398 |
2,555,337 |
127.3% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-31/05 |
|||
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