Walnuts: sharp downturn in Chile
November 4, 2024 at 11:36 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Sharp dent for inshell walnuts
Chile’s walnut exports have declined sharply, especially for inshell walnuts as the most recent figures issued by ChileNut show. Monthly exports only amounted to 7,146 mt in September, which is 30% down on last year’s 10,141 mt. At 60,204 total exports range 32% lower than the 88,207 mt recorded between 21 March and 30 September last year. India has, however, remained the top destination for Chile, despite shipments slumping by 38%. Turkey is sporting the most notable decline of 54%, whereas shipments to Italy are 13% up.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, inshell (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
India |
41,849 |
26,003 |
-37.9% |
|
Turkey |
20,221 |
9,329 |
-53.9% |
|
Italy |
6,484 |
7,335 |
13.1% |
|
Morocco |
5,197 |
3,929 |
-24.4% |
|
Spain |
2,856 |
2,912 |
2.0% |
|
Germany |
1,322 |
1,344 |
1.7% |
|
Lithuania |
17 |
1,297 |
7,529.4% |
|
UAE |
1,802 |
1,281 |
-28.9% |
|
China |
2,345 |
1,155 |
-50.8% |
|
Peru |
800 |
901 |
12.6% |
|
Others |
5,314 |
4,718 |
-11.2% |
|
Total |
88,207 |
60,204 |
-31.8% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-30/09 |
|||
Smaller dent for shelled walnuts
Shelled walnut shipments have also declined, but by a much more nominal 10% to 17,940 mt in the current season. Monthly shipments slumped by 22% to 3,874 mt in September as opposed to the 4,947 mt shipped in September last year. Chile mainly ships shelled walnuts to EU member states with Spain as the most important export destination. Shipments to here have even climbed by 4% this season so far. Contrary to this, shipments to Italy have dropped by 25%, whereas shipments to Germany are 3% up.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, shelled (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
Spain |
4,207 |
4,373 |
3.9% |
|
Italy |
2,604 |
1,944 |
-25.4% |
|
Germany |
1,679 |
1,736 |
3.4% |
|
Netherlands |
1,425 |
1,664 |
16.8% |
|
Brazil |
1,736 |
950 |
-45.3% |
|
France |
583 |
911 |
56.3% |
|
Ecuador |
798 |
832 |
4.3% |
|
UK |
550 |
536 |
-2.6% |
|
Portugal |
468 |
465 |
-0.7% |
|
Switzerland |
369 |
419 |
13.5% |
|
Others |
5,474 |
4,110 |
-24.9% |
|
Total |
19,893 |
17,940 |
-9.8% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-30/09 |
|||
Record production possible in Chile
While the current dent in exports is driven by a substantial production decline this year, the situation is set to improve for Chile next year. In the “Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade” report issued by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in October production is projected to rise by 11% to a record 195,000 mt if growing conditions turn out to be as good as expected in spring and in summer. This should also boost exports, especially to the EU and India.
In China, production has also risen by 11% to a record 1.5 million mt in 2024/2025. Although as much as 80% are consumed domestically, exports to Kyrgyzstan and the United Arab Emirates have picked up considerably in recent years. Expectation is that this trend will continue.
Contrary to this, production has declined by 19% in the US this year. Issue is that the nut set per tree slumped by 24% and bearing acreage decreased by 4%. Low chilling hours adversely impacted flowering and fruit set. Although several late winter and spring storms boosted snowpack and brought normal water levels to California, blight also showed in some orchards. As record-high temperatures were witnessed in summer growers, in addition, had to rely on irrigation more strongly. Exportable supplies are, therefore, lower.
For the EU production is estimated 7% higher as nominal gains in France, Italy and Spain have more than compensated for the declines in Romania, the leading producing EU member state. Reduced US supplies should also weigh on imports this season.
In Ukraine production has remained flat as growing conditions are unchanged. While Ukraine used to mainly ship walnuts to Russia, Iraq and Turkey, suppliers have now switched to the EU and Azerbaijan due to the war with Russia.
Production is also flat in Turkey as growing conditions were normal. The US, Chile and China are the main suppliers for Turkey, where walnuts are also starting to gain a foothold as a healthy snack.
|
Global walnut production (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,350,000 |
1,500,000 |
11.1% |
|
USA |
747,520 |
607,814 |
-18.7% |
|
Chile |
175,000 |
195,000 |
11.4% |
|
EU |
140,000 |
150,000 |
7.4% |
|
Ukraine |
100,000 |
100,000 |
0.0% |
|
Turkey |
67,000 |
67,000 |
0.0% |
|
India |
33,000 |
34,000 |
3.0% |
|
Others |
43,000 |
41,000 |
-4.7% |
|
Total |
2,655,520 |
2,694,814 |
1.5% |
|
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA, in-shell basis |
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