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Wheat: Forecasted to break through the 3 mmt export ceiling by the end of 2017

December 21, 2017 at 10:11 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. No drastic change in cultivated acreages for next year. Exports are projected to remain strong, going into 2018.

BULGARIA. The country does not expect a drastic upward change in the cultivation of wheat acreages for the next season. Although in absolute terms, local farmers produce and export the highest quantities of wheat on a yearly basis among the other locally grown grains, farmers rotate crops each year, trying to cultivate those that have the highest export potential and thus realize higher profit margins. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 14th of December 2017, estimates of planted wheat areas reached 1,100,255 ha, which on a year-to-year basis stand by only 1% higher.

Wheat: exports to break the 3 mmt ceiling before end of year

Due to favorable weather conditions, harvest 2017-18 was quite a success for local farmers! According to local authorities, the country realized 5.9 mmt (season 2016-17: 5.66 mmt), which tops all aggregate productions in a row of at least two decades, realizing an average yield of 5.2 mt/ha or 10.3% higher than that of harvest 2016-17.

Annually, the majority of wheat is shipped abroad (season 2016-17: 73.62%) with exports to the EU markets (61.23%) leading among the rest of the world. Domestically, the country consumes less wheat, as the majority demand is driven by the food sector, followed by those of the feed and industrial ones.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 15.12.2017)

           units in MT

Beginning availability

179,000

Aggregate output

5,900,000

Imports

40,995

Domestic consumption

879,200

   food

455,000

   feed

228,000

   seeds

180,000

   industrial usage

16,200

Exports to the world

2,906,028

   to EU markets

2,511,789

   to rest of the world

394,239

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

So far in the marketing season, exports have been more than encouraging, and the trend is forecasted to keep its upbeat pulse, going into 2018! By the 15th of December 2017, shipped volumes abroad reached 2,906,028 mt, with exports to EU countries amounting to 2,511,789 mt, according to local authorities. By the end of last year’s marketing season (30th June 2017), total exports to the Union came to 2,552,259 mt. Worse results in the harvests of some countries of the Union such as Spain necessitated a higher than expected local export rate.

Wheat, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

milling wheat

0.145

feed wheat

0.138

EXW Bulgaria

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